Signals: China World Domination in Supercomputers and Towards Lead in Artificial Intelligence

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

? How threatening will the leadership of China in terms of artificial intelligence (AI) be perceived? What would mean escalating tensions between China and the U.S. involving AI and how would they play out? (Critical uncertainties)

➚➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI with related hardware capabilities (notably supercomputers) haves and have-nots

➘ U.S. ability to stem the declining tide in terms of AI and supercomputers

➚➚ China domination in supercomputing power
➚➚ China influence
➚➚ China rise to top major power status

➘➘ U.S. decline in supercomputing power
➘ U.S. influence
➚➚ US decline from sole superpower to major power status

➚ Escalating Tension U.S. – China

As we start our new section on Artificial Intelligence (AI), politics and geopolitics for the future, signals regarding the revolution at work pile up. China certainly appears to be leading the way in that matter.

First, China dominates again the new issue (13 Nov 2017) of the biannual list of the world’s fastest supercomputers. It not only takes “the top two seats, but [is] also pulling ahead of the United States in the sheer number of systems being used… China’s Sunway TaihuLight maintains the lead as the No. 1 system for the fourth time, with a performance of 93.01 petaflops.”

For previous and other signals check the

Horizon Scanning Board

China leads now with 202 ranked supercomputer systems, while the U.S. only has 143 systems. Six months ago, the U.S. led with 169 supercomputers, China only having 160.  The other countries rank far behind: “Japan in third place with 35, followed by Germany with 20, France with 18, and the UK with 15” (Top500).

This shows not only China’s ability to lead in supercomputers, but also to remain at the top, meanwhile also increasing the sheer mass of operational Chinese supercomputers. Meanwhile, the U.S. is not only falling behind in relative terms, but also in absolute ones.

This would tend to signal an American inability – which is not fateful but that seems to be settling in – of the U.S. to stem a decline in supercomputing and AI terms, which was one of the critical uncertainties we indicated previously.

Related

The Chinese Artificial Intelligence Revolution

Signal: Google Alphabet CEO Thinks China will Lead in AI by 2025

The Paradox of U.S. Decline … and the Tensions with North Korea

This hardware development is all the more important considering its linkage to AI, as the power of supercomputers is necessary for the development of AI, notably in its deep-learning component with its massive use of big data.

In the field of AI, Wang Yongdong, vice president of Microsoft’s Asia-Pacific R&D Group explained on 8 November at the AI World 2017 in Beijing that “three factors – massive data, cloud computing and strong algorithms – have led to the rise of AI technologies, particularly in China.”

Besides, as pointed out (see previous related Signal) by Google Alphabet CEO, China also benefits from strong planning and support given by the state to the development of AI. To this must also be notably added the efforts of the three “Internet giant companies: Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent”, as well as the sheer number of the Chinese population, when big data are a crucial element. These are huge assets for China in terms of AI.

The weaker points that could derail or slow China’s effort to dominate the AI world stage, according to Chen Qingqing (Global Times) are a weaker AI Chinese ecosystem (compared with the U.S.), as well as potentially lagging behind in “developing open-source software as well as general chips”. “Chinese scientists would be too eager to turn their research into profits”, as pointed out by Micree Zhan, CEO of Beijing-based custom chip manufacturer Bitmain.

We should note that, considering the platform where this AI article is published – i.e. Global Times, the international newspaper of the very official People’s Daily –  denunciation of a too profit-minded spirit that could go against state policy is a strong signal given to the AI community to change their ways.

Should China overcome its weaknesses, it is well on its way to indeed dominate in both supercomputing power and AI, soon becoming the top major power of a world perceived through the lenses of AI haves and have-nots (see The Chinese Artificial Intelligence Revolution).

The potential consequences remain still highly and critical uncertainties. Among these – but far from being limited to it – the U.S. potential inability to accept the new technological world order (see The Paradox of U.S. Decline) increases the odds to see escalating tensions between the U.S. and China, despite the successful friendly bilateral summit of November 2017.

China dominates list of world’s top supercomputers again – Global Times

Once again, China dominated a new list of the world’s fastest supercomputers, not only taking the top two seats, but also pulling ahead of the United States in the sheer number of systems being used.

50th Anniversary | TOP500 Supercomputer Sites

The eighth TOP500 list was topped by a 2,048 processor CP-PAC built by Hitachi and installed at the Center for Computional Science at the University of Tsukuba in Japan. The system, which was a non-commercial extension of the Hitachi SR2201, achieved 368.20 gigaflops in running the Linpack benchmark.

2017 a key year for China’s AI industry as it begins to outperform the US in tech breakthroughs – Global Times

China and the US are now the two world leaders in pursuing AI development. 2017 in particular has been a key year for China’s AI industry, as more and more domestic companies have been making technological breakthroughs within the sector and as the application of AI has been penetrating all aspects of daily life in China.

AI World 2017世界人工智能大会

Executive President, President of Consumer Business Group of iFlytek

Signal: Libya’s Largest Tribe Poses Challenge for a Peaceful Solution

Impact on Issues

➙ ➀ / ➄ Hindrance to effective peace talks / Continued war in Libya

Recent statements by the elders of the Warfalla tribe highlight an underlying challenge to Libyan peace talks—tribalism. Under the umbrellas of the rival Libyan governments lie a host of tribes that are simultaneously competing for influence and power.

The Warfalla are considered Libya’s largest tribe with an estimated 1 to 1.5 million of the total population of 6 million people. The tribe’s elders recently iterated that any UN solution for Libya’s civil war would require the inclusiveness of the Warfalla—considering it comprises a large portion of the population.

“We are represented in all regions. If the U.N. wants a solution for Libya you need to talk (to us) the tribes.”

They claim that the UN has not asked them to be involved in the dialogue, to which a UN official pointed out that at least two Warfalla delegates participated in the latest peace talks in Tunisia. The elders dismissed this claim by noting that they “did not feel represented by them.”

The Warfalla leaders say they do not support the rival governments and would like to see peace talks take place within Libya and led by Libyans.

Considering the size and influence of the Warfalla’s confederation of tribes, we may wonder if the United Nations and other external actors will better recognize the role of tribalism in a political solution. However, more inclusivity may also cause fallout as rival tribes vie for political influence (as we’ve seen occur historically). For example, the Warfalla and Misrata tribes have a historical hostility towards each other, which could flare up if one sees the other as gaining more influence in a peace solution.

As external actors attempt to bring about a unified peace agreement, it will be interesting to see how they will measure success—will an agreement simply between the rival governments constitute success, or will an agreement supported by the rival governments and the majority of Libyan tribes define the peace solution?

Hilltop tribe’s bitterness a challenge for Libya peace effort

BANI WALID, Libya (Reuters) – Elders of a powerful tribe that defended the regime of former leader Muammar Gaddafi have a message for the United Nations as it tries to broker peace in Libya – talk to us or you will fail. The U.N.

The Chinese Artificial Intelligence Revolution

The artificial intelligence (AI) world summit took place in Singapore on 3 and 4 October 2017 (The AI summit Singapore). If we follow this global trend of heavy emphasis on AI, we can note the convergence between artificial intelligence and the emergence of “smart cities” in Asia, especially in China (Imran Khan, “Asia is leading the “Smart city” charge, but we’re not there yet”, TechinAsia, January 19 2016). The development of artificial intelligence indeed combines with the current urbanization of the Chinese population.

This “intelligentization” of smart cities in China is induced by the necessity to master urban growth, while adapting urban areas to the emerging energy, water, food, health challenges, through the treatment of big data by artificial intelligence (Jean-Michel Valantin, “China: Towards the digital ecological revolution?”, The Red (Team) Analysis Society, October 22, 2017). Reciprocally, the smart urban development is a powerful driver, among others, of the development of artificial intelligence (Linda Poon, “What artificial intelligence reveals about urban change?” City Lab, July 13, 2017).

Related

Signals: China World Domination in Supercomputers and Towards Lead in Artificial Intelligence

Signal: Google Alphabet CEO Thinks China will Lead in AI by 2025

In this article, we shall thus focus upon the combination of artificial intelligence and cities that indeed creates the so-called “smart cities” in China. After having presented how this combination looks like through Chinese examples, we shall explain how this trend is implemented. Finally, we shall see how the development of artificial intelligence within the latest generations of smart cities is disrupting geopolitics through the combination of industry and intelligentization.

Artificial intelligence and smart cities

In China, the urban revolution induced by the acceleration of rural exodus is entwined with the digital and artificial intelligence revolution. This can be seen through the national program of urban development that is transforming “small” (3 million people) and middle size cities (5 million people) into smart cities. The new 95 Chinese smart cities are meant to shelter the coming 250 millions people expected to relocate into towns between the end of 2017 and 2026 (Chris Weller, “Here’s China’s genius plan to move 250 millions people from farms to cities”, Business Insider, 5 August 2015). However, these 95 cities are part of the 500 smart cities that are expected to be developed before the end of 2017 (“Chinese “smart cities” to number 500 before end of 2017“, China Daily, 21-04-2017).

Crowd in HK

In order to manage the mammoth challenges of these huge cities, artificial intelligence is on the rise. Deep learning is notably the type of AI that is used to make these cities smart. Deep learning is both able to treat the massive flow of data generated by cities and made possible by the exponentially growing flows of these big data – as these very data allow the AI to learn by themselves, through the creation, among other things, of the codes needed to apprehend new kinds of data and issues (Michael Copeland, “What’s the difference between AI, machine learning and deep learning?”, NVIDIA Blog, July 29, 2016).

For example, since 2016, the Hangzhou municipal government has integrated artificial intelligence, notably with “city brain”, which helps improving traffic efficiency through the use of the big data streams generated by a myriad of captors and cameras. The “city brain” project is led the giant technology company Alibaba. This “intelligentization” of traffic management helps reduce traffic jam, improves street surveillance, as well as air pollution for the 9 millions residents of Hangzhou. However, it is only the first step before turning the city into an intelligent and sustainable smart city (Du Yifei, “Hangzhou growing “smarter” thanks to AI technology”, People’s Daily, October 20, 2017).

“Intelligentizing cities”

Through the developing internet of things (IoT), the convergence of “intelligent” infrastructures, of big data management, and of urban artificial intelligence is going to be increasingly important to improve traffic, and thus energy efficiency, air pollution and economic development (Sarah Hsu, “China is investing heavily into Artificial intelligence, and could soon catch up with US”, Forbes, July 3, 2017). The Hangzhou experiment is duplicated in Suzhou, Quzhou and Macao.

Meanwhile, Baidu Inc, the Chinese largest search engine, develops a partnership with the Shanxi province in order to implement “city brain”, which is dedicated to create smart cities in the northern province, while improving coal mining management and chemical treatment (“Baidu partners with Shanxi province to integrate AI with city management”, China Money Network, July 13). As a result, the AI is going to be used to alleviate the use of this energy, which is also responsible of the Chinese “airpocalypse” (Jean-Michel Valantin, “The Arctic, Russia and China’s energy transition”, The Red (Team) Analysis Society, February 2, 2017).

In the meantime, Tencent, another mammoth Chinese technology company, is multiplying partnerships with 14 Chinese provinces and 50 cities to develop and integrate urban artificial intelligences. In the same time, the Hong Kong government is getting ready to implement an artificial intelligence program to tackle the 21st urban challenges, chief among them urban development management and climate change impacts.

Baidu Campus2

When looking closely at this development of artificial intelligence in order to support the management of Chinese cities and at the multiplication of smart cities, we notice both also coincide with the political will aimed at reducing the growth of already clogged Chinese megacities of more than ten million people – such as Beijing (21,5 millions people), Shanghai (25 millions), and the urban areas around them – and of the network of very great cities where more than 5 to 10 million people live. Indeed, the problem is that these very large cities and megalopolis have reached highly dangerous levels of water and air pollution, hence the “airpocalypse”, created by the noxious mix of car fume and coal plants exhaust.

From the intelligentization of Chinese cities to the “smart cars revolution”

This Chinese  AI-centred urban development strategy also drives a gigantic urban, technological and industrial revolution, that turns China into a possible world leader in clean energy, in electric and smart cars and in urban development. The development of the new generations of smart car is thus going to be coupled with latest advances in artificial intelligence. As a result, China can position itself in the “middle” of the major trends of globalization. Indeed, smart electric cars are the “new frontier” of the car industry that supports the economy of great economic powers as such as the U.S., Japan, and Germany (Michael Klare, Blood and oil, 2005), while artificial intelligence is the new frontier of industry and the building of the future. The emergence of China as an “electric and smart cars” provider could have massive implications for the industrial and economic development of these countries.

Traffic in Huangpu District, Shanghai 2007-10-27 1

In 2015, in the case of Shanghai, the number of cars grew by more than 13%, reaching the staggering total of 2.5 million cars in a 25 millions people strong megacity. In order to mitigate the impact of the car flow on the atmosphere, the municipal authorities use new “smart street” technologies. For example, the Ningbo-Hangzhou-Shanghai highway, daily used by more than 40 000 cars, is being equipped with a cyber network allowing drivers to pay tolls in advance with their smartphones. This application allows a significant decrease in pollution, because the lines of thousands of cars stopping in front of paybooths are reduced (“Chinese “smart cities” to number 500 before end of 2017”, China Daily, 21 April 2017).

Alibaba group Headquarters

In the meantime, the tech giant Tencent, the creator of WeChat, the enormous Chinese social network, which attracts more than 889 million users per month (“2017 WeChat Users Behavior Report”, China Channel, April 25, 2017), is developing a partnership  with the Guangzhou automobile Group to develop smart cars. Baidu is doing the same with the Chinese BYD, Chery and BAIC, while launching Apollo, the open source platform on AI-powered smart cars. Alibaba, the giant of e-commerce, with more than 454 millions users during the first quarter of 2017 (“Number of active buyers across Alibaba’s online shopping properties from 2nd quarter 2012 to 1st quarter 2017 (in millions)”, Statista, The Statistical Portal, 2017) is developing a partnership with the Chinese brand SAIC motors and has already launched the Yunos System, which connects cars to the cloud and internet services. (Charles Clover and Sherry Fei Ju, “Tencent and Guangzhou team up to produce smart cars“, Financial Times, 19 september 2017).

It must be kept in mind that these three Chinese giant tech companies are thus connecting the development of their own services with artificial intelligence development, notably with smart cars development, in the context of the urban, digital and ecological transformation of China. In other terms, “city brains” and “smart cars” are going to become an immense “digital ecosystem”  that artificial intelligences are going to manage, thus giving China an imposing technological edge.

This means that artificial intelligence is becoming the common support of the social and urban transformation of China, as well as the ways and means of the transformation of the Chinese urban network into smart cities. It is also a scientific, technological and industrial revolution.

This revolution is going to be based on the new international distribution of power between artificial intelligence-centred countries, and the others.

Indeed, in China, artificial intelligence is creating new social, economic and political conditions. This means that China is using artificial intelligence in order to manage its own social evolution, while becoming a mammoth artificial intelligence great power.

It now remains to be seen how the latest generations of smart cities powered by developing artificial intelligence accompanies the way some countries are getting ready for the economic, industrial and ecological, as well as security and military challenges of the 21 century, and how this urban and artificial intelligence is preparing an immense geopolitical revolution. This revolution is going to be based on the new international distribution of power between artificial intelligence-centred countries, and the others.

About the author: Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris) leads the Environment and Geopolitics Department of The Red (Team) Analysis Society. He is specialised in strategic studies and defence sociology with a focus on environmental geostrategy.

Featured image:  The Bund by Shizhao This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 1.0 Generic license. Scaled and cropped image.

Signals: Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel…

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

? Unity of Arab States, willingness and capability to support Saudi Arabia, willingness and capability to counter growing Iranian influence, (critical uncertainties)

➚ (➃ conflict in Yemen) Saudi perception of Iranian expansion and resulting threat

➙ ? Lebanon destabilisation
➚  ? Hezbollah influence in Lebanon

➚➚ Iran actualization of the Shia crescent to the Mediterranean Sea
➚ Iran influence

➚ ➃ Middle East Tension

➙ ? Russia influence
➙ ? U.S. influence
➙ ? France influence

➙➚ Threat to Israel

Lebanon (ex?)-Prime Minister Hariri’s flight then resignation from Saudi Arabia has created a host of rumours, as actors try to understand what happened really. Irrespectively of the truth, the Hariri crisis has also generated – or revealed – potential for escalating tensions, centred this time around Lebanon, but that could impact the whole Middle East.

For other as well as previous and related signals check the

Horizon Scanning Board

The backdrop to the crisis is the redrawing of the influence map in the region as the political and geopolitical situation around Syria and Iraq change, moving from war to peace.

In a nutshell, we see a growing Iranian influence, Iran moving forward with the Shia crescent to the Mediterranean Sea, which is likely perceived as a threat by Saudi Arabia – and most probably Israel. The Saudi Kingdom’s threat perception can only be heightened by the latest explosion of a pipeline in Bahrain, and by a ballistic missile launched by the Iranian-supported Houthi in Yemen, which was destroyed close to Ryadh airport.

Iraq has moved under an Iranian sphere of influence, notably over the past month. If Russia notably would appear to guarantee a relatively future peaceful and non aggressive Syria, Iran will nonetheless have there a friendly future country. Thus, for those actors so inclined, Lebanon may be seen as the last place where to stop Iran’s ability to reach the Mediterranean Sea. There, under Saudi backed Prime Minister Hariri, the Shia Hezbollah had been able to increasingly participate in the Lebanese government. Hence one might conclude that the Saudis moved to derail Hezbollah and thus Iranian influence in Lebanon.

However, if such a move has taken place, it forgot to consider Lebanese wishes for peace and unity, and could actually, as a result, further increase the Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon, as long as Iran does not make any vocal declaration nor acts in a way that could be perceived as more threatening by Saudi Arabia.

The international community is multiplying calls to calm and responsible behaviour.

Even though rash moves towards war are always possible, it may be difficult for Saudi Arabia to further escalate much the situation, despite war rhetoric, considering notably the Yemenite military quagmire, hence the need for support from other Arab States and the call for an extraordinary meeting of the Arab League. Saudi – and Arab – trade and aid sanctions on Lebanon could be imagined, yet they could also backfire, lowering Saudi Arabia’s influence in Lebanon. A return to the situation ante in Lebanon, with a shared influence, could be the ideal outcome of the crisis for all actors, including Saudi Arabia. In such a case, Iran would have succeeded in increasing its influence and actualizing its corridor or crescent to the Mediterranean Sea, however it would be kept in check by other powers, considering notably the Russian Hmeimim Air Base in Latakia.

In any event, Israel reasserted quickly its willingness and independence in defending its territory, wherever the threat could come from, also most probably to make sure that the promises by various larger powers such as the U.S. and Russia would be kept.

Arab League to meet on Iran at Saudi request: diplomats

The Arab League will hold an extraordinary meeting next Sunday at the request of Saudi Arabia to discuss “violations” committed by Iran in the region, according to a memorandum

In demanding Hariri’s return, Lebanese find rare unity

A country long divided by sectarian conflicts, Lebanon has found a rare point of unity since Saad al-Hariri’s shock resignation as prime minister: Lebanese of all stripes want him to come back from Saudi Arabia and to continue his work as premier.

Hariri warns Lebanon faces Arab sanctions risk, to return in days

Saad al-Hariri warned on Sunday Lebanon was at risk of Gulf Arab sanctions because of the Shi’ite group Hezbollah’s regional meddling and said he would return to Lebanon within days to affirm he had resigned as the country’s prime minister.

Israel signals free hand in Syria as U.S., Russia expand truce

JERUSALEM (Reuters) – Israel signalled on Sunday that it would keep up military strikes across its frontier with Syria to prevent any encroachment by Iranian-allied forces, even as the United States and Russia try to build up a ceasefire in the area. U.S.

Yemen’s Houthis fire ballistic missile at Riyadh

Yemen’s Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for a loud explosion in Riyadh, saying they fired a long-range ballistic missile that travelled more than 800km over the border with Saudi Arabia. A spokesman for the rebels told Al Jazeera they launched a Burkan 2-H missile – a Scud-type missile with a range of more than 800km – towards Riyadh late on Saturday.

Signal: Al Qaeda / Islamic State New Front In Western Egypt?

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

➚ ➃  Reinforced jihadist front in Western Egypt
➚ ➃ Challenges to Egypt as it is squeezed between the Sinai and Western fronts

➚ ➄ Survival of the Islamic State
➚ ➄ Islamic State resurgence in the MENA region, notably Libya
➚ ➄ Strengthening of al-Qaeda in the MENA region

➚ ➄ Reinforced linkages with other jihadist groups and theatre of operations in Africa

It would seem according to the array of indications included within the Reuters article below, that we are facing further spill over of the Islamic State conflict, as expected considering the Islamist Jihadist worldview.

For previous and other signals check the

Horizon Scanning Board

The likely spill over would be taking place in the western part of Egypt, and would originate geographically mainly from Libya and Mesopotamia.

We could have a possible strengthening of al-Qaeda affiliated groups and attacks, as fighters switch allegiance from the Islamic State, because of the latter current disarray in Mesopotamia. However, the Islamic State would also be showing some resurgence in Libya.

Related

Portal to Strategic Foresight and Warning Analysis for Libya (Scenarios, likelihoods, indicators, state of play)

The War against the Islamic State

We could witness both a competition for allegiance between the two nexus of jihadist groups and, on the ground, operational “temporary” alliances, as has already happened in the past in Libya.

Linkages with other jihadist groups and theatre of operations in Africa could also come to the fore.

Egypt Western Desert attack exposes front outside Sinai

A deadly attack on the police in Egypt’s Western Desert claimed by a new militant group risks opening up another front for security forces far beyond the remote northern Sinai, where they have battled a stubborn Islamic State insurgency since 2014.

Signal: Rival Libyan Governments Remain at Odds Over Haftar

Impact on Issues

➙ ➀ / ➄ Stalled peace dialogue / Continued war in Libya

On Monday, the head of the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) High Council of State—Abdulrahman Swehli—reiterated the continued inability of the GNA and the Council of Representatives (COR) to agree on General Haftar’s role in a united government.

For previous and other signals check the

Horizon Scanning Board

Swehli said that delegations from both governments have mostly agreed on a new government structure to rule the country until 2018 elections, with the exception of military control and Haftar’s role. “The obstacle now is mostly about the military and how it will be run and who will be in control,” Swehli said. “The other side is very clear that they want to carry on with what they have at the moment, which is not good for our democracy. We are still far away from each other.”

The Council of Representatives based in eastern Libya continues to align itself with General Haftar and demand that he have a leading role in the new Libyan state.

Related

Portal to Strategic Foresight and Warning Analysis for Libya (Scenarios, likelihoods, indicators, state of play)

Haftar’s polarizing politics and tactics remain a principal source of contention between Libya’s various factions, which undermines any dialogue about his potential role in a united government.

Considering Haftar’s pursuit for power, the COR’s refusal to align with a government that excludes him, and the GNA’s demand that he recognize their authority and submit to civilian control, it’s likely that Libya will continue on the path of political separation and conflict.

Libyan rivals split over army leadership: Tripoli parliament head

TRIPOLI (Reuters) – Libyan factions involved in U.N.-brokered peace talks are still far apart on the issue of the leadership of a future national army, the head of one of two rival parliaments said on Monday.

The Paradox of U.S. Decline … and the Tensions with North Korea

This article stresses the paradoxical character of a U.S. decline, and addresses the impossibility for the U.S. to accept its demise as superpower. It applies this framework to the case of the 2017 tensions with North Korea, and deduces a possible future path for the U.S. course of action, as well as possible levers regarding the U.S. stance.

It is the last part of a series of three articles where we examine three dimensions of U.S. decline as perceived – publicly – by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), part of the U.S. Office of The Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). In the first part (open access), we sought to understand what the NIC means exactly by a U.S. decline and its onset. The second article focuses on the sources of American decline and power, as identified by the NIC, which also give us indicators to monitor the decline.

Executive Summary

When decline of a country is the issue, the perceptions and resulting actions of the declining power are crucial. Therefore, we focus upon the way the U.S. Intelligence Community (I.C.) addresses the idea and reality of an American decline, through the unclassified (public) version of Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress (GT), the Quadriennal Strategic Foresight report the U.S. I.C. produces for the new President elect.

Because of GT’s uncertainties, ambiguity, indeed a paradox regarding the U.S. decline, results. On the one hand, decline is asserted but with implicit uncertainties, and, on the other hand, ways to revert it are also suggested. Furthermore, the U.S. I.C. also stresses the unique moral place of the U.S. in the world. As a result, the foresight report could finally prompt and support not acceptance of the end of the U.S.-led unipolar world, but the design of a very assertive U.S. policy to regain or keep superpower status, which it is a moral duty to follow.

There is here convergence between the assessment of the U.S. I.C. and the Trump presidency’s “America First” policy. Isolationism is not part of the picture, despite some commentators’ initial hasty conclusions, just after the elections.

When applied to the 2017 North Korean crisis, the framework constructed by GT explains the U.S. stance. It shows it is likely that the crisis has also become a stake in the U.S. struggle for recovering or maintaining its superpower status. As a result, there is a high probability to see the U.S. remaining locked into its escalating stance, even though diplomacy is also used behind the scenes, should a face-saving path forward for the U.S. not be found and used.

Meanwhile, by choosing this direction towards power, the U.S. could lose sight of its very security, which could, in turn, favour and potentially hasten decline, hence the paradox.

Full article 2547 words – approx. 7,5 pages

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* It is crucial never to forget the importance of morality in American foreign policy, e.g. Robert W. McElroy, Morality and American Foreign Policy: The Role of Ethics in International Affairs, Princeton University Press, 1992.

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About the author: Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the Director of The Red (Team) Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for national and international security issues.

Featured image by tammyatWTI, Public Domain, Pixabay

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Detailed bibliography

Adizes, Ichak Kalderon, “The Decline of the United States“, The WorldPost, Berggruen Institute and The Huffington Post, 15 May 2015

Chinese Foreign Ministry,  “Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with German Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Gabriel“, August 15, 2017.

Etzioni, Amitai “Is America Losing Its Credibility with the Middle East?”, 26 October 2017, The National Interest

Harvard Thucydides’s Trap Project

 Mohammed Arshad, and Matt Spetalnick, “Exclusive: U.S. pursues direct diplomacy with North Korea despite Trump rejection“, 1 November 2017, Reuters

National Intelligence Council, Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress (GT), Office of the Director of National Intelligence, (for the public version, January 2017).

Reuters, “Merkel suggests Iran-style nuclear talks to end North Korea crisis“, 10 Sept 2017.

Reuters, “Trump’s threat to ‘destroy’ North Korea is wrong: Merkel“, 20 Sept 2017).

Waltz, Kenneth, Theory of International Politics, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979.

Read a summary of Waltz’s theory in the Korab-Karpowicz, W. Julian, “Political Realism in International Relations“, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Summer 2017 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.).

Xinhua, China, Russia, South Korea urge caution with DPRK at UN assembly, Global Times, 22 Sept 2917.

Signal: Still no Agreement – Iraqis Forces and Peshmergas

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚ ? ➃  Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty)➘ ? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty) ➚ ➃  /➄ Iraq strength and international support ➘ ➂ Legitimacy of Iraqi Kurdish political authorities and parties➘ Prospects for Iraqi Kurds’ independence and even autonomy ➙ ➃  Iran’s influence in Iraq and in the region ➘ ➃  U.S. influence in the region➘ Middle East American order (Other issues stable as regard to this signal only – a full assessment would need to consider events in Lebanon and Yemen) On 5 November 2017, the ongoing negotiations between the Iraqi forces …

Continue reading “Signal: Still no Agreement – Iraqis Forces and Peshmergas”

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Event – Book Launch / Lancement “Géopolitique d’une Planète Déréglée”

Bilingual text EN-FR – Invitation to book launch, then presentation of Dr Jean-Michel Valantin, Géopolitique d’une Planète Déréglée.

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English invitation: Join us on 7 Novembre, 19h15 for Dr Jean-Michel Valantin Géopolitique d’une Planète Déréglée book launch, at Sciences Po, 13 rue de l’Université, Amphi Erignac, with a debate on “current geopolitics and the Anthropocene” (see more detail – Fr – here) – Free entry.

Invitation française: A l’occasion de la sortie du livre de Jean-Michel Valantin, Géopolitique d’une Planète Déréglée, nous sommes heureux de vous inviter à un débat sur “la géopolitique contemporaine à l’heure de l’Anthropocène”, mardi 7 novembre à 19h15 à Sciences Po (13 rue de l’Université, Amphi Erignac). Animé par Fanny Agostini (Thalassa, France 3), il réunira Jean-Michel Valantin (spécialiste de géopolitique, responsable « Environment and security » de The Red (Team) Analysis Society) et François Gemenne (Directeur du programme “Politique de la Terre à Sciences Po-USPC et auteur du livre Géopolitique du climat, Colin, 2015). Entrée gratuite.

Dr Jean-Michel Valantin, head of the Environment and Geopolitics Department of The Red (Team) Analysis Society, launches his new book Géopolitique d’une planète déréglée (Le Seuil).

The book focuses on the current geophysical and biodiversity crisis, which is quickly and massively disrupting modern geopolitics, through wars, massive refugee crisis, the international competition for resources, and the weakening of national security systems.

Where are we heading as a result from the US, Russian, Chinese policies and strategies? What are the geopolitical and strategic consequences of the warming, overexploitation and pollution of the ocean, especially in the Arctic? Is the Somali piracy a possible future scenario for other places? Which regions and countries will be best prepared to face these future shocks and how will they handle them?

The author, specialised in strategic studies and defence sociology with a focus on environmental geostrategy, addresses these crucial issues and warns us about the growing danger of “a resource and climate war of all against all”, which it is still possible to prevent.

Dr Jean Michel Valantin, qui dirige la section Environnement et Géopolitique de The Red (Team) Analysis Society, présente son dernier livre: Géopolitique d’une planète déréglé (Le Seuil).

Les changements géophysiques et la crise biologique planétaires en cours sont autant de facteurs de bouleversements géopolitiques rapides, massifs et brutaux. Un nouveau paysage géopolitique et stratégique émerge, marqué par la combinaison du changement climatique et de ses effets systémiques, telles les migrations de masse, la compétition mondiale pour les ressources et la crise des régimes contemporains.
Où les politiques des Etats-Unis, de la Russie et de la Chine mènent-elles la planète ? Comment l’épuisement des océans alimente-t-il la piraterie maritime ? Comment le réchauffement de l’Arctique est-t-il exploité par certains intérêts tandis qu’il constitue une immense catastrophe pour des milliards d’humains ? Quelles régions ont-elles les meilleurs atouts pour traverser le XXIe siècle ? L’auteur, spécialiste de géopolitique, nous fait comprendre les liaisons dangereuses entre puissance économique, guerre et environnement. Il nous alerte sur les dangers, les violences et les barbaries qui se profilent.
Le moment du choix collectif entre la « guerre de tous contre tous » sur une planète effondrée ou une alliance stratégique mondiale pour répondre aux nouveaux défis planétaires approche à grands pas.

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Jean-Michel Valantin, PhD in strategic studies and defense sociology, head of “Environment and Geopolitics” of The Red (Team) Analysis Society), is also the author of Hollywood, Washington et le Pentagone (Autrement, 2003), Écologie et gouvernance mondiale (Autrement, 2007) et Guerre et Nature, L’ Amérique se prépare à la guerre du climat (Prisma Media, 2013).

Signal: Google Alphabet CEO Thinks China will Lead in AI by 2025

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

? Will the U.S. be able to stem this declining tide in terms of AI? How threatening will the leadership of China in terms of AI be perceived? what would mean escalating tensions between China and the U.S. involving AI and how would they play out? (Critical uncertainties)

➚➚ China influence

➚ China rise to top major power status

➘ U.S. influence
➚➚ US decline to major power status

➚ Escalating Tension U.S. – China

Eric Schmidt, Executive Chairman, Alphabet Inc. (Google) and Chair, Defense Innovation Board, stated he believed that:

“These Chinese people are good… It’s pretty simple. By 2020, they will have caught up; by 2025, they will be better than us; and by 2030, they will dominate the industries of AI.” (Eric Schmidt, Artificial Intelligence and Global Security Summit, CNAS, 1 Nov 2017)

Meanwhile, he praised the capacity of China to develop a national strategy with corresponding public funding to reach this aim, whilst contrasting the inability of the U.S. to have such a national and collective purpose.

Considering the growing emphasis on artificial intelligence globally, its exponential integration within all devices across sectors, from civilian including finance to military domains, a Chinese leadership in AI then dominance would most probably further consecrate the decline of the U.S. to the status of a major power among others.

Early signals of this American loss of power in terms of science, innovation and technology have been apparent since at least December 2014 (see 11 December 2014 Weekly Scan, “The U.S. under Threat”).

Will the U.S. be able to stem this declining tide? Which strategies will the various actors concerned deploy? What will be the political and geopolitical impacts not only of this increasingly obvious American decline but also of Chinese highly possible dominance in terms of AI, among other technological developments? How threatening will the leadership of China in terms of AI be perceived? What would mean escalating tensions between China and the U.S. involving AI and how would they play out?These are critical uncertainties that must be part of our agenda.

Google Chairman: China Will ‘Dominate’ US in AI By 2030

Eric Schmidt, the top dog at Google’s parent company Alphabet, warned that China was on track to surpass the US in artificial intelligence by 2025 and to ‘dominate the industry’ by 2030 – unless American minds change their approach. The comments came in response to Beijing outlining their artificial intelligence strategy.

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