Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section. World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – Besides developments in the Islamic State War, and on the broader Jihadi front, continuing tensions between NATO and Russia, and related uncertainties for the situation in Ukraine, what stands out this week is, potentially, how much the U.S. and their supremacy are under threats and how they could fight back, or not. Interestingly, this perception of multiple threats to the U.S. only emerges if one considers various sections together, namely, world (of course), technology and armaments, energy and economy. We thus have together the decline of oil prices …
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Since August 19 2014 and the broadcast of American James Foley murder at the hands of the Islamic State (Ackerman, 20 August 2014, The Guardian), Western media regularly feature grim videos where the Islamic State beheads individuals belonging to the groups it perceives as enemies and opposing its Caliphate. The gruesome, ghastly and shocking character of the videos and of the Islamic State, is then regularly emphasized by both media and Western governments.
Meanwhile, as the executioners are chosen among the foreign fighters having joined the Islamic State (e.g. Walker, 20 August 2014, The Independent; Botelho, 20 November 2014, CNN), the departure of Western youth to join and fight for the Caliphate is emphasized, and the IS propaganda is denounced. Yet, new research and media interviews (e.g. Lowen, 6 November 2014, BBC News; Maher, 6 November 2014, New Statesman), focusing on the reasons for which those young people join the IS do not particularly single out cruelty, wish to inflict pain, abhorrence of human rights or any violent feature as a cause for deciding to build a new life involving combatting, thus killing and risking being killed.
Still from the Islamic State video “Flames of War”, Al-Hayat Media Center – The subtitles read “But what is the enjoyment of worldly life compared to the Hereafter except but a [very] little.”
Could it thus be possible that there is more to the Islamic State’s propaganda than ghastly beheadings, and the core messages of fear and “calculated madness” pointed out by Brooking (21 August 2014, CFR)? Could something else also infuse the Islamic State’s propaganda? Could its message tell us something we need to understand, if we are ever to want to be able to fight the Caliphate victoriously?
As we aim at understanding the Caliphate better in the framework of a strategic foresight and warning that must be actionable, we shall start here exploring the Islamic State’s propaganda. We shall begin by reviewing military concepts related to propaganda and wondering if and how they can be applied to what the Islamic State is doing. Then, we shall identify main products and channels for the Islamic State’s Psyops as well as sources. This will lay the foundation for addressing, with the next post, themes and issues related to the content of the Islamic State’s strategic communication operations.
Propaganda, Psyops or Strategic Communication?
Besides the very often used “propaganda”, a wealth of terms is found in the specialized military literature: propaganda, strategic communication, psychological operations etc..* Thus, what are we talking about exactly? We should ideally use IS own terms, however, in the absence of such a body of documents, we shall notably use American material. The latter has first the advantage to be more or less used among allies, many of them part of the coalition against the Islamic State. Second, as the US-led coalition meets in the NATO headquarters, to discuss military strategy including how to counter the Islamic State’s propaganda and “to stem the flow of foreign fighters joining” IS (BBC News, 3 December 2014), developing from the starts a conceptual framework that can be directly understood by those fighting IS is crucial.
In general, we are here interested in “influence”, i.e. “the inherent understanding that all Diplomatic, Information, Military & Economic (DIME) activities have the potential to influence the behaviors and attitudes of specific groups.” (Steve Tatham, 2013: 8). Needless to say, this definition fully includes all “new” available media, such as social media and networks available on the World-Wide Web, through mobile phone or other infrastructure, potentially communication taking place outside the web but using cell phone, or other communication using non technological means, as well as cyber-security.
From Dabiq #3, p. 29 – Part 4 of the feature article “Hijrah from Hypocrisy to Sincerity”, where Hijrah is equated to “the path to Jihad”.
Coming back to our definition, in other words, when a group tries to wield influence, it applies “specific activities to a target audience to influence behaviors and attitudes.” Using this rather large definition allows us first to bridge what could be a dangerous divide between different “influence actions”, if the information component were to forget what the diplomatic, military or economic realm did, as interestingly emphasised by Paul Kamolnick (June 2014) in his Countering radicalization and recruitment to Al-Qaeda: fighting the war of deeds.
This definition also allows us to overcome the increasingly inconvenient divide that is made across domains in the West between what is foreign and what is domestic and that is most probably irrelevant if used stricto sensu as far as the Islamic State is concerned. For example, Murphy (2012) shows in the case of American history, that this divide is not a fatality but may evolve according to needs. He recalls how the Committee on Public Information (CPI) in 1917 tried to influence American opinion to support the American engagement in World War I (pp. 164-165).
One of the pictures illustrating a report on “the conquest of the Tabaqah military airbase” in Dabiq #3 p.21. For a non-IS account of the fall of the Tabaqah airbase, read the excellent Joseph Adams, “Anatomy of a Massacre”, 3 December 2014, Syriadirect.org http://syriadirect.org/main/30-reports/1725-part-i-the-march
Then, more specifically, we are interested in the information element of this larger influence, i.e. “any form of communication in support of national objectives designed to influence the opinions, emotions, attitudes, or behavior of any group in order to benefit the sponsor, either directly or indirectly” (Ibid: 162), where we would need to substitute “a polity’s” instead of national, to accommodate any political form. According to Murphy (Ibid. fn 24), this definition was the definition of propaganda before the term propaganda, increasingly perceived as pejorative, became “any form of adversary communication, especially of a biased or misleading nature, designed to influence the opinions, emotions, attitudes, or behavior of any group in order to benefit the sponsor, either directly or indirectly” (DOD Dictionary of Military Terms, Washington, DC: Department of Defense, 2014). Propaganda, now, is thus mainly used against adversaries, while allies only practice “Strategic Communications”, i.e. “focused U.S. Government efforts to understand and engage key audiences to create, strengthen, or preserve conditions favorable for the advancement of U.S. Government interests, policies, and objectives through the use of coordinated programs, plans, themes, messages, and products synchronized with the actions of all instruments of national power” (U.S. JP 1-02, Tatham 2013: 9). We may replace the U.S. government by any other to have a rather flexible and usable definition.
It is supported by Information Operations, i.e. “the integrated employment, during military operations, of information-related capabilities in concert with other lines of operation to influence, disrupt, corrupt, or usurp the decision-making of adversaries and potential adversaries while protecting our own.” A primary capability of IO is called Psychological Operations (Psyops) in Europe and NATO (Tatham, 2013: 8), except in the US where it has become Military Information Support Operations (MISO). Psyops or MISO are defined as “planned operations to convey selected information and indicators to foreign audiences to influence their emotions, motives, objective reasoning, and ultimately the behavior of foreign governments, organizations, groups, and individuals in a manner favorable to the originator’s objectives” (US JP 3-13, Tatham, 2013: 8).
Opening page of the long report “Remaining and Expanding” pp. 20- 33 in Dabiq #5.
Considering the war the Islamic State is waging to establish the Caliphate and that war, Jihad, is at the very core of the Caliphate raison d’être (see our “Monitoring the War against the Islamic State…“, 2014 and “Scenarios: an Islamic Al-Sham?“, 2013), then both IOs and Psyops should be applicable to the Islamic State, as would be the old and new definition of propaganda. The former definition is, however, more interesting because, by not assuming the information transmitted is biased or untruthful – although it may also be – it will yield a better understanding of the Caliphate and thus allows for better SF&W and ultimately better responses.
We shall nevertheless have to wrestle with the difficulty brought about by the differentiation between foreign and domestic. First, this distinction may only be kept in the case of IS, if we find something similar to it, but according to the IS own definition of what is foreign and what is domestic. Second, in terms this time of answer, if IS conducts Psyops on our own territory, which it is obviously doing, but that we forbid ourselves to do “counter-Psyops” because of obsolete administrative divisions, instead delegating the conduct of those operations to, for example, exclusively “social-humanitarian” programs detached from the military and political understanding and context, then new challenges, to say the least, are most likely to quickly emerge.
As we can apply Psyops and related concept to the Islamic State, while, as seen, making sure we do it in a way that adapts to IS rather than trying to force IS operations within existing concepts, we shall also be able to apply existing techniques of analysis. Here we shall start classically with the Source, Content, Audience, Media and Effects (SCAME) approach (U.S. FM 3-05.302, Appendix D, 10/28/2005), however adapting it to IS and to means. Notably, it seems more logical to identify first media or channels as well as the products used then sources, as those will give us both our material as well as a way to identify it and thus will frame the overall analytical endeavour. We shall turn to content, audience and effects in the future.
The Islamic State Psyops products and channels
This list is likely to expand as our work and research progress and as events unfolds. Updates will thus be published when possible and necessary. As far as could be so far observed and gathered, the main products and channels used by the Islamic State to target and influence specific audiences are as follows.
Online visual media such as videos and photos
The quality of the videos disseminated by the Islamic State is recognised by all as professional (e.g. Mauro, 21 September 2014, The Clarion Project) and confirms a trend we had underlined as growing among the various Islamic groups fighting in Syria (Lavoix, “The rise of the Salafi-Nationalists“, January 2014), as also recently noted by Brooking (August 2014).
Still from the Islamic State video “Flames of War”, Al-Hayat Media Center
A famous example of such videos is the 55 minutes “Flames of War: Fighting Has Just Begun” released on 19 September 2014.
They are spread through twitter but also any other web-based support, from those specific to broadcasting videos to any website. It is necessary here to underline that despite the hunt after IS videos that is taking place on platforms such as Youtube or Vimeo, it is most likely that IS propaganda is here to perdure – short of extreme measures, assuming they are possible or desirable – as setting up a single page website where any file may be available has never been easier, and as the web counts more than 1,132,414,000 websites (2 December 2014 11:57 see Internet live stats for real-time count).
Audio and text messages
We find notably instances of audio messages for official statements, for example by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, accompanied by transcript and translation (see Pieter van Ostaeyen, 13 November 2014, Pietervanostaeyen), or IS spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani ash-Shami, for example 17 April Audio and translated transcript Message (Pietervanostaeyen) or “Indeed Your Lord Is Ever Watchful” September 2014 translated text message (Worldanalysis.net).
It is most likely that local radios exist on the ground, if we believe the excellent database of identifiers and logos maintained by Jihad Intel.
The monthly magazine Dabiq
Warning: some pages of Dabiq show graphic and psychologically hard to face images, including some related to executions. It is however impossible not to consider such a crucial material, and not to link to it if analysis is to be done.
Cover page of Dabiq #4
Dabiq’s first issue was published in 1435 Ramadan, Hijri or Islamic calendar, knowing that the first day of the lunar month of Ramadan of the year 1435 was 29 June 2014, i.e. when the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) or Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) renamed itself as the Islamic State, and declared a Caliphate led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, as his Caliph (Al Jazeera, 30 June 2014). It was actually released a few days later, on 5 July 2014 (Gambhir, August 2014). Among others, it is available through worldanalysis.net (see here for #1). Dabiq latest issue, #5 was published in 1436 Muharram or Oct-Nov 2014. According to Dabiq, it is thus named after an area,
“In the northern countryside of Halab (Aleppo) in Sham. This place was mentioned in a hadith describing some of the events of the Malahim (what is sometimes referred to as Armageddon in English). One of the greatest battles between the Muslims and the crusaders will take place near Dabiq.”
Follows then the text of the hadith, which is further explains in Dabiq #3. We find here clear eschatological (concerned with the end of time or end of the world, ‘eschatology‘, Merriam Webster) references, and more specifically Islamic eschatology references (see Furnish, 11 September 2014 in Counter-Jihad Report and MahdiWatch; Gambhir, Ibid.; Ryan, 1 August 2014, Jamestown Foundation).
Dabiq is disseminated through all channels as for the other products.
Use of social networks
IS Psysops uses all social networks and notably twitter to spread its messages. A report realised by Recorded Future (Staffan, 3 September 2014) for Skynews found out that more than 60 000 pro-IS sympathisers twitter accounts existed or had existed between May 2014 (Cheshire, 5 September 2014, Skynews) and August 2014 (the end period is not mentioned). Among those, only some are, most probably, “official” IS accounts. However, the pattern observed is indicative. An account is opened and spreads material or comments. If it is closed (manually as it is reported to Twitter), then, almost instantaneously, a near identical account is opened elsewhere, with a slightly different name. As noted above, we find a similar pattern for the use of various platforms such as videos and blogs or of single page websites.
Online fora and encrypted programs
Although being advertised on Dabiq, for example, see Issue 3 p. 41, fora using notably encryption program “Asrar El Moujahedeen” qualifies as a very specific form of Psyops. The target audience is obviously individuals who are either technologically aware or already enough influenced to be able to be guided through the initial steps by tech savvy Jihadis. Indeed, as explained in detail by Joseph Cox (January 2014, Vice), finding then using those fora is not immediate. That said, as a result, the communication and exchanges, including recruitment, made on these fora may also be perceived as shrouded in secrecy and part of an initiation process, two elements that may well add an attractive aura of media restricted to a selected few.
The Islamic State Psyops sources: major “official” media centers and sympathizers
Al-Furqan Media Foundation
Note: as much as possible, no direct link will be provided to videos of murders and executions, however the reference given should allow researchers to find the related evidence.
Logo of Al-Furqan Media Foundation
The Al-Furqan media foundation has been the media arm of, initially, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and thus has operated since at least November 2006, if we use the collection of Al-Furqan videos maintained by SITE (for the change from ISI to the Islamic State of Iraq and a-Sham (ISIS), see “War in Syria, State of Play III: The Jihadis“, last updated Feb 2014).
Still from The Islamic State “Although the disbelievers dislike it”, Al Furqan Media Foundation.
Since 29 June 2014, and thus the announcement of the creation of the Islamic State and the Caliphate, it is the media center that has been producing and spreading the ghastly videos of the murders and beheadings: US James Foley (19 August 2014; see logo on video “A Message to America” available on military.com video center – warning: the graphic video autoplays), US Steven Sotloff (2 September 2014, video “A Second Message to America”, e.g. Drury, 2 September 2014, Daily Mail), UK David Haines (13 September 2014, see logo on still and video “”A Message to the Allies of America” available on Leaksource), UK Alan Henning (3 October 2014, see logo on still and video available on Leaksource), US Peter Kassig (16 November 2014, video “Although the disbelievers dislike it”, see still showing the Al-Furqan media logo).
It is also Al-Furqan that produces the tragic videos where John Cantlie is forced to speak, as shown by the logo (see still for example on a Tumblr blog, http://diary-of-a-muhajirah.tumblr.com/, that has not yet been stopped at the time of writing but will probably soon be).
Al-Hayat Media Center
Logo fo Al-Hayat Media Center
The other major producer affiliated with IS is Al-Hayat Media Center, which besides videos also produced the official document related to the birth of the Caliphate (for the English version, “This is the promise of Allah“), as well as the magazine Dabiq (see Dabiq #1). At the end of December 2014, it started producing a new magazine with France as target audience, Dar al Islam (see here for 2 first issues).
Al-Hayat previously produced the Islamic State Report (Jihadology.net for issues #1 to #3) and the Islamic State News (Jihadology.net for issues #1 to #3), which combined into Dabiq, as underlined by Gambhir (Ibid., p. 2). Al-Hayat productions also show scenes of executions and murders, as well as deaths of IS fighters, but obviously focus on a message that is different compared with Al-Furqan’s.
Al-Itisam Media
According to Jihad Intel, “Al-Itisam Media is a media wing of the Islamic State, having produced many high-quality videos from Syria in particular entitled “Windows on the Land of Epic Battles.” Al-Itisam Media emerged in 2013 after the Islamic State of Iraq became the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant.”
Al-Itisam also produced the first of the videos announcing the birth of the Caliphate on 29 June 2014: “Kasr al-Hudud ~ Breaking the Borders” (Pietervanostaeyen, 29 June 2014 – the second and third “This is the promise of Allah” were produced by Al-Hayat, for the third a translation is available in English, Russian, French and German produced by both Al-Hayat and Al-Furqan).
Sympathizers quasi-sources
Besides the two official media centers presented above, we also have many non official but pro-IS sources, which create products. For example, French hostage Hervé Gourdel execution was filmed and realeased in a video mirroring Al-Furqan’s ways (24 September 2014, video “”A Message with Blood to the French Government,” see Site Intel Group, 24 September 2014).
We may wonder if those could be considered as quasi-sources. Indeed, they may help spread IS messages, notably where IS sources are not present but they may also be uncontrollable elements.
With the next post of the series we shall turn to content.
———–
*Although it is not only very common, but also fashionable to believe that business-related activities such as marketing and products advertisement can be directly applied to political situations writ large, i.e. including wars and warfare, we shall not follow this trend, on the contrary, but walk in the footsteps of those who believe, such as Steve Tatham, that failing to understand the specificity of politics and war is one of the causes for many of the ills that beset Psyops in the Western world and in the U.S. in particular. As a result, we shall not use marketing sources.
Bibliography and sources
[jetpack-related-posts]
Featured image: Still from the video “Although the disbelievers dislike it” Al-Furqan Media Foundation.
Ackerman, Spencer, “Obama: murder of James Foley ‘shocks the conscience of the entire world'”, 20 August 2014, The Guardian.
Botelho, Greg, “French authorities back off claim against man in ISIS beheadings video”, 20 November 2014, CNN.
Brooking, Emerson, “The ISIS Propaganda Machine Is Horrifying and Effective. How Does It Work?”, August 21, 2014, Defense in Depth, CFR.
Furnish, Timothy R., “Obama on ISIS: Oft In Lies Truth Is Hidden” 11 September 2014, The Counter-Jihad Report.
Gambhir, Harleen K, “Dabiq: the Strategic Messaging of the Islamic State”, 15 August 2014, ISW.
Kamolnick, Paul, Countering radicalization and recruitment to Al-Qaeda: fighting the war of deeds, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, June 2014.
Lavoix, Helene, “War in Syria, State of Play III: The Jihadis”, 6 May 2013, last updated Feb 2014, The Red (Team) Analysis Society.
Lavoix, Helene,”The rise of the Salafi-Nationalists”, 27 January 2014, The Red (Team) Analysis Society.
Lavoix, Helene, “Monitoring the War against the Islamic State or against a Terrorist Group?”,29 September 2014, The Red (Team) Analysis Society.
Lavoix, Helene, “Scenarios: an Islamic al-Sham”, 27 May 2013, The Red (Team) Analysis Society.
Lowen, Mark, “Islamic State crisis: The 13-year-old on ‘righteous path'”, 6 November 2014, BBCNews.
Maher, Shiraz, “From Portsmouth to Kobane: the British jihadis fighting for Isis” 6 November 2014, New Statesman.
Mauro, Ryan, “ISIS Releases ‘Flames of War’ Feature Film to Intimidate West”, September 21, 2014, The Clarion Project.
Murphy, Dennis M. “Strategic Communications: Wielding the Information Element of Power”, in U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Issues – Volume I: Theory of War and Strategy, Edited by Dr. J. Boone Bartholomees Jr., Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, June 2012, 159-172.
Okamoto, Joel, “Eschatology and the Islamic State”, October 28, 2014, Concordia Theology.
U.S. FM 3-05.302, TACTICAL PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS TACTICS, TECHNIQUES, AND PROCEDURES (INCL C1), Appendix D, 10/28/2005. http://armypubs.army.mil/doctrine/Active_FM.html
Ryan, Michael W. S., “Dabiq: What Islamic State’s New Magazine Tells Us about Their Strategic Direction, Recruitment Patterns and Guerrilla Doctrine”, 1 August 2014, Jamestown Foundation.
Staffan, “ISIS Jumping from Account to Account, Twitter Trying to Keep Up”, 3 September 2014, Recorded Future blog.
Tatham, Steve, U.S. Governmental Information Operations and Strategic Communications: A Discredited Tool or User Failure? Implications for Future Conflict, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, December 2013.
Walker, Tim, “James Foley ‘beheaded’: Isis video shows militant with British accent ‘execute US journalist’ – as hunt begins for killer”, 20 August 2014, The Independent.
Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section. World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – An excellent article by Prof Anatol Lieven for BBC News on “How can the West solve its Ukraine problem?” addresses – at long last – most problems related to the Ukrainian crisis in a masterful, objective and constructive way, not shying away from the very difficult situation into which Ukraine now is. The fact it is published by BBC News is positive and might signal that we could enter a healthier period regarding the way the crisis in Ukraine is handled. In turn it might give more hope to see the crisis …
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The civil war in Libya recently became more complex and dangerous, as the jihadist group Majlis Shura Shabab al-Islam (the Islamic Youth Shura Council) announced that the Eastern Libyan city of Derna is now part of the Islamic State (Zelin, October 10, 2014). An Islamic State (IS) foothold in Eastern Libya could pose concerns for international governments already combatting IS in Syria and Iraq. With its border less than 200 miles from Derna, Egypt is particularly concerned as they are already fighting Islamists, notably in the Sinai. Nevertheless, it is crucial to understand all the actors on the Libyan battlefield, as we are doing here, if one wants to make sense of the civil war and its international ramifications. The …
The remaining part of this article is for our members and those who purchased special access plans. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. Log in and access this article.
Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section.
World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – Our featured article, this week, is Yinon Weiss “What if the Military Has Been Focusing on the Wrong Thing the Whole Time?” for Small Wars Journal. Weiss, who notably served as US Army Special Forces officer, training allies forces abroad, questionsthe current American (as well as NATO and anti-Islamic State coalition) policy that consists in training military allies to achieve victory, when, actually, “the other side [is] surviving and even thriving” without any training support.
The Islamic State is one of the contemporary most serious and novel threats to the transitioning (or not) current world order. The fact that war is part and parcel of the Islamic State and its Caliphate or Khilafah (خلافة) very existence is only one of the many challenges and novelties that most of the rest of the world must face.
The merging of different wars and issues is another mammoth challenge. For example, the wars in Libya, Syria and Iraq merged with the Islamic State war. When it became clear that a new war had started, one key question was to find out is there were different theatres of operations for a theatre of war itself limited to the Middle East and North African Region, or if we should revise the way we apply those strategic concepts, or if the very concept of the theatre of war, understood as an ideal-type of a defined quasi-independent system (Carl Von Clausewitz, On War, Book V, Ch 2) was also in needs of revision because of the Caliphate and its use of the globalised networked world into which we live. These questions are still crucial in May 2017, even though many seem to start believing – a bit early ? – that the war against the Islamic State has been won.
As far as the theatres of operations are concerned, who are those who define them? If we use the American definition of “theatre” – “The geographical area for which a commander of a geographic combatant command has been assigned responsibility. (JP 1-02. SOURCE: JP 1)” – then, again, who defines the geographical area as well as determines when responsibility for command should be attributed? If there is no US or coalition theater, does that mean that there is indeed no theater, for now? But what about the future? Are concepts exclusively defined in geographical terms sufficient? Or might they enhance the probability that we would remain on the defensive, granting the initiative to the enemy?
Those are only samples of the many questions that must asked before we can hope finding proper answers and strategies, not only militarily and across governments but also across societies and actors.
We explore here those concerns and work towards providing actionable strategic foresight and warning on the Islamic State war, building upon and looking for best ways to incorporate the more specific War in Syria, the War in Libya and other current and future issues (and related sections).
Daily monitoring of the war against the Islamic State across social media: The Caliphate War Sigils.
“Interstellar”, the 2014 global blockbuster movie by Christopher Nolan is a feat of intellectual and strategic thinking. The movie follows the adventures of three astronauts whose mission is to find a viable planet for humankind, while people on Earth are struggling with the rapid decay of the biosphere and the increasingly dangerous effects of climate change. In fact, this movie addresses the political and existential issues of what is to become of humanity once the climate change crisis, the biodiversity crisis and the energy and minerals crises will have been firmly and clearly interlocked for two dozens years from now. This nexus of “socio-bio-vital crises” is very smartly used by Christopher Nolan to elaborate a vehicle for a new kind of …
The remaining part of this article is for our members and those who purchased special access plans. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. Log in and access this article.
Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section.
World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – An interesting statement by the US Army Chief of Staff sums up well the current situation for many countries: “I need more money and troops for today’s threats”. This points out the complete lack of foresight – and warning – that plague our societies as the now inadequate strategy and budget General Odierno refers too are dated 2012, which is only 2 years past.
This also underlines the conundrum of neo-liberal societies. First, to briefly summarize, they tend to believe that trade and globalisation has ended all wars, if not history, while state spending must be cut. As a result, as with all ideologies as they become biases, proper analysis, proper foresight and proper decisions become impossible. Second, there is the never-ending or returning grinding crisis (see economy section below) that stops growth and thus the automatic increase of resources available to societies to face threats.
These two features combine to make societies unable to stop threats in a timely and proper manner – when they do not contribute to create threats when none previously existed. As other ideologies (read, for example Chris Zappone “A new Cold War ideology…“) and biases, as well as inefficiencies to say nothing about the promotion of mediocrity and incompetency among elite groups (see, for an explanation, material and ideological stakes in an outdated worldview) amalgamate, the threats, in turn, swell. Then, one day or another, resources must imperatively be found, when they are even less available than previously. What are the ways forward? Probably, for a while, the downward spiral will continue, until the system is forced to change to be able to face and answer the new threats, with a hope to win… except that having changed it will have disappeared anyway. But is it not how societies have changed and evolved throughout time?
Technology and armaments – Among others, check the articles about IARPA’s speech recognition challenge, 2014 Defense One Summit and EPA’s key priorities of the revised Capability Development Plan.
Energy and environment security – Besides “Germany plans to withdraw from binding 2020 climate targets”, which signals (again) the lack of real concern of various governments for seriously tackling anthropogenic climate change, and many articles on renewable energies, a rarer reminder about the crucial importance of biodiversity and more specifically bees for food security, as 70 of the 100 crop species that provide 90% food are pollinated by bees.
Science – A very interesting on using the metrics of resilience, contrasting first the resilience and the risk assessment approaches and then exploring how military doctrine and military-science-based research can help defining proper resilience metrics, that could then be applied across government (and organizations).
Economy (look here for issues related to economic crises, monetary policy, inequality, or budget deficit for example) – Many articles this week are about the bad data for Japan – which were to be expected, considering, notably, the amazing amount of its public deficit, even if the when remained a mystery – as well as the slow down in China. This is most likely to mean a return of the grinding global crisis, assuming it has ever stopped.
Ebola – The good news this week is that the outbreak seems to be stabilizing in Liberia, considering the heavy inflow of means. The continuing absence of contagion outside the region is also positive. The potentially bad news, beyond an absence of improvement notably in Sierra Leone, and cases in Mali, is the death of a repatriated patient in the US, despite the use of Zdam. According to the WHO latest situation report, we now have “a total of 15113 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of EVD and 5406 deaths …reported up to the end of 16 November 2014.”
The Weekly is the scan of The Red (Team) Analysis Society and it focuses on national and international security issues. It was started as an experiment with Paper.li as a way to collect ideas, notably through Twitter. Its success and its usefulness led to its continuation.
The information collected (crowdsourced) does not mean endorsement but points to new, emerging, escalating or stabilizing problems and issues.
If you wish to consult the scan after the end of the week period, use the “archives” directly on The Weekly.
Featured image: “C-band Radar-dish Antenna”. Licensed under Public domain via Wikimedia Commons
After we focused, in our series on the far-right in Ukraine, first on ultra-nationalism then on the new People’s Front ultra-nationalist outlook and related potential impacts, notably regarding war in Eastern Ukraine, this last post will deal with the remaining far-right groups.We shall first look at the way the war in Eastern Ukraine further legitimized not only far-right and nationalist groups but also their paramilitary branches. Then, after presenting a map of the ultra-nationalist and far-right actors on the Ukrainian scene, we shall introduce more in detail those right-wing groups that are both represented in parliament and certified by their participation in the war, before to turn to those that have no parliamentary representation but nevertheless remain legitimized by the war.Legitimizing paramilitary right-wing groupsThe Ministry of Interior …
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Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section.
World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – Note a very interesting and excellent article, part of a “series on strategic communications, narrative, and the Islamic State” for The Bridge (publication stopped) by Lieutenant Colonel Dean Case, a United States Army Information Operations Officer, and Mikhail Grinberg, which, using lessons learned from Iraq makes the case for a strategy to win the “battle of legitimacy” against the Islamic State. Considering this aspect may be all the more important considering the Caliphate “expansion”, in Libya and Egypt.
Notably, Lt Col Case underlines that “One critical element of all of our messaging efforts was the truth. To win the battle of the narrative against AQ, we had to not only tell a better story, we had to prove it.” This is a lesson that must and ought to be remembered as, with the heightening of the tension in Eastern Ukraine, we are back to a very heavy anti-Russian, anti-Putin campaign. Again, nothing is spared, even hyping an insignificant event in China, bordering on slander (the facts being obviously true but the implied slander making us wonder if the story is truly better, or if it does not rather make the side hyping it despicable). Hardly any voice – in the english-speaking social networks’ sphere – disturbs the new doctrine. Even using multi-lingual crowdsourcing, only one article in Spanish looking at what is happening inside Luhansk is identified. It will thus become again extremely difficult finding and elaborating objective analysis. Meanwhile, if policy is based only on biased analyses, then only bad decisions are likely to be taken, which considering the other current challenges would come at the worst moment. Interestingly, The International Red Cross, which has a policy of neutrality, stressed similarly the highly polarized climate that made of Ukraine a highly complex and very difficult crisis for them. But because the ICRC president Peter Maurer expressed those views in an interview with Russian Agency Tass, we should surely discard them as propaganda…
Also of crucial importance we should signal the still difficult yet happening rapprochement between Japan and China, while the evolution over the last months tends to show a Japan that is slowly moving closer to Russia thus becoming less strongly anchored into the American dominated world. Positively, this also shows that even high escalation can be lowered toward stabilization.
Technology and armaments – Besides much on new armaments’ contracts, cybersecurity and big data, the article “The Cyborg Medicine of Tomorrow Is Inside the Veteran of Today” is particularly interesting. We can perceive the issue as not only frightening but also terribly sad, for example when one has seen the last version of the film Robocop (2014, by director José Padilha – a must watch to understand many issues at hand here), or, alternatively, as exhilarating when one believes in technologism, “human enhancement”, and “singularity”. Two different perspectives and narratives on the same problem.
Energy and environment security – A particularly thought-provoking article points out the feedback look existing between the wars being waged in the Middle-East, the related environmental damage and the future potential impact in terms of heightened likelihood for new, continuing or renewed wars. The article focuses notably on aerial bombing, seismic areas and impact on water.
Science – Unsurprisingly, we have many articles on the “Rosetta mission’s comet landing”. Besides the scientific impacts and feat, it is also a success of the European Space Agency, which might mean that Europe is not yet out of the picture, first, and, second, notably considering the recent catastrophes involving commercial endeavours, that public or state’s efforts are, similarly, neither that inefficient nor defunct, of course when implemented properly with the right people.
Economy (look here for issues related to economic crises, monetary policy, inequality, or budget deficit for example) – A must read article by Pr John Clarke on “imagined economies” allows readers to step back and reflect critically on various possible “economies”, which, in turn brings back “the economy” to its true dimension “a social and political product and thereby open to social and political action”. here again we find the central theme for this week, narratives and the war and battles that may surround them.
Ebola – We again identify the same finding as previously, the Ebola epidemic outbreak hardly interests anyone. The “crowdfeeling” might be right as, according to the WHO latest situation report, there might be some stabilization at work in both Guinea and Liberia, but not in Sierra Leone, while Mali now knows four cases with four deaths. However, it is most likely that the lack of interest is linked to the absence of fatal cases outside West Africa, considering the origin of most sources for crowdsourcing. The danger might be that the efforts to stop the epidemic become impacted.
The Weekly is the scan of The Red Team Analysis Society and it focuses on national and international security issues. It was started as an experiment with Paper.li as a way to collect ideas, notably through Twitter. Its success and its usefulness led to its continuation.
The information collected (crowdsourced) does not mean endorsement but points to new, emerging, escalating or stabilizing problems and issues.
If you wish to consult the scan after the end of the week period, use the “archives” directly on The Weekly.
Featured image: “C-band Radar-dish Antenna”. Licensed under Public domain via Wikimedia Commons
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