Welcome to a new Author on Climate Change Security

The Red (Team) Analysis Society welcomes Dr Jean Michel Valantin, who will focus on issues and problems related to climate change and national security. Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris) is specialised in strategic studies and defense sociology, and more particularly in environmental geostrategy. He is the author of Menaces climatiques sur l’ordre mondial (Climatic threat on the world order), Ecologie et gouvernance mondiale (Ecology and world governance), Guerre et Nature, l’Amérique prépare la guerre du climat (War and nature: America gets ready for climate war), and of Hollywood, the Pentagon and Washington: The Movies and National Security from World War II to the Present Day.

With his first article, “Climate change, a geostrategic issue? Yes!”, he explains why climate change should also be seen from a geostrategic perspective, and underlines, through concrete examples, that, actually, the evolution in strategic thinking has already started. He thus prepares us to explore:

“These forces [that] are reshaping the whole international relationships web, as well as the fabric of nations, societies and communities. They are causing new kinds of tensions, which are the engines of actual, and coming, conflicts, struggles, revolutions, and wars.”

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No121, 10 October 2013

This week among the major clusters of signals that emerge, we have those about Turkey, its geopolitics and growing Islamism, then the chronicles of an environmental catastrophe in the making, including resources depletion, with the rising importance of a “Gold Rush to Space” as one counterweight. In this framework, if we look at another – unsurprising – cluster, the U.S. government shutdown (and risk of default – but they would not dare, would they?), and turn to the very interesting “Un-Official Government Shutdown Clock”, we shall see that the NASA counts 97% of furloughed employees, the EPA 93% and the DOE 69%. Thus, to direct challenges to national security the shutdown represents, amply emphasized and documented, we may see another one being outlined, a challenge in terms of strategic choices and vision. The cluster on drones and “killer robot insects” is an indication of the changes taking place in warfare, while the more ancient but always efficient psychological operations continue unabated, as with Syria. Meanwhile, the agony of Greece and Greeks exemplifies a world that has changed, with its growing wealth and skyrocketing inequality and their so often forgotten, slowly emerging political consequences, at national and international level (including the progressive loss of legitimacy of international institutions, see the articles on the IMF  and Greece and the U.N. and Haiti).

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Facing the Fog of War in Syria: Updates

As underlined when we started the series on Syria, one of the analytical challenges we face, in terms of strategic foresight and warning, is the fog of war. The, at time, rapid evolution of the situation, fits badly with any static mean to deliver analysis. We need, of course, to monitor what is happening, but also to regularly integrate this surveillance in our strategic analysis and finally to make it known to concerned audience (readers, decision-makers, policy-makers). After having outlined the methodological difficulties and presented the solution chosen, we shall focus on the updates themselves. Methodology: challenges and imperfect solutions First, in terms of periodicity and content of publication (delivery in SF&W jargon), a right balance must be found between …

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The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No120, 3 October 2013

Besides other issues, the agreement between the U.S. and Japan to modernize their security cooperation, implying among others a larger role for Japan, is most likely to have ripple effects, notably considering the tense situation with China and unhealed regional wounds stemming from World War II. Energy security then is very much to the fore, with renewed questions regarding the adverse environmental impact of fracking also having a strong potential for large and multiple impacts, without forgetting the impact of Fukushima’s nuclear tragedy.

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Weak Signals of Cracks in the Neoliberal Paradigm?

government, business, neoliberalism, Red (team) Analysis, paradigm shift, political risk, weak signal“Businesses run the world, they are better managed, more efficient at all levels, promote innovation and discoveries, and deliver better services and products than any other organization, notably governments and states’ administrations.” This is a hardly caricatured representation of the worldview we have increasingly known since at least the middle of the 1980s, that bloomed and became entrenched in the 1990s and in the first decade of the 21st century. Yet, what if it were now showing signs of being questioned, besides protests movements? And which signals can we find that could indicate the possibility of cracks in the hegemony of this idea?

A first signal comes from what we could call an elite group, itself benefiting from the hegemony. The Henry Jackson Initiative For Inclusive Capitalism (HJI), launched on 14 May 2012, although focusing on capitalism as a system and aimed at the private sector, seeks to promote a better capitalism, because:

“we believe that a broad-based acceptance of basic ethical norms is necessary if any form of capitalism is to be widely accepted. Otherwise, the system itself will be discredited and ultimately destroyed, whether by internal failures, external pressures or both—or by some other unforeseen and undesirable force.” (HJI Task Force’s report, p.6)

It promotes the vision held by neoliberalism, according to which “capitalism has made the world healthier, richer and freer than previous generations could have imagined. People in capitalist societies live longer than their forebears, earn more and are better educated,” (report, p.4), but also take stocks of many of its shortcomings and adverse impacts. By doing so, it seeks to only bring “modifications” (p.6) to the current system, not to completely change it. Yet, its very efforts will contribute to achieve something different from what we knew. Furthermore, the HJI shows that it is now possible to question the dominant ideology without being marginalized. This signal, as the next one, would most probably not have emerged if the various protests movements that took place worldwide, from the “Arab Awakening” to Occupy, had not occurred, as indeed underlined p.26 of the report. Interestingly, the HJI also specifies that its focus is the private sector, thus acknowledging a difference between the mission of governments and states’ administrations on the one hand, and the role of businesses on the other, setting a clear line between both, in contradiction with the previous worldview:

We decidedly take no position as to exactly what level of taxation and regulation best balances the ability of government to do what it must without harming the desire of entrepreneurs and businesses to do what they can.” (my emphasis – report p.6)

The signal is all the more important that the HJI it is a child of the British and transatlantic think tank the Henry Jackson Society (see notably its history and its advisory council), and relayed by famous and recognized media, such as The Economist, as shows the interview of Lady Lynn Forrester de Rothschild, a crucial member of the HJI task force,  and among others, Chief Executive of E.L. Rothschild LLC as well as a Director at The Economist, on “Capitalism and society in 2013” (video, The Economist’s World in 2013, Gala dinner on December 6th 2012).

A second signal comes from the website OnlineMBA.com, which has as “larger mission to educate prospective MBA students, not only about their options for online programs, but also about current trends in business”.* As part of its education purpose, this website produces videos (Minute MBA), and one of its latest production is titled “3 reasons why government shouldn’t be run like a business” (see here for a transcript):

In the words of one member of the video production team:

“This is an independent research project. We are not connected and affiliated by any school, organization or government. Moreover, we are privately funded by contributors and researchers who have volunteered their time to create this resource and other resources within our site.”*

Besides being interesting and very well done, this video – and it can also be taken as a perfect example of the diversity of ways we can use to deliver products – is a direct signal that cracks in the neoliberal ideology exist and seem to spread. Interestingly, once more, it comes from one of those very groups – the private sector – that were meant to benefit most from the paradigm. Furthermore, it is promoted by the young generation and within the field of education, which is one of the institutions in society where norms are inculcated.

The existence of those signals does not mean that everything will change overnight, nor even that the still current worldview is meant to disappear. We could witness a possible polarization taking place in the Western World and elsewhere, as suggested previously, but with changes compared with what was noted in November 2012. Either the polarization will be kept in check and a more peaceful evolution will take place, as the signals here suggests, or the polarization will happen, but with a positioning of actors that could be seen as surprising from the point of view of the worldview questioned. The indications reported here could also disappear, not be followed by others, leaving the ideology more entrenched… for a while, as it is the historical destiny of worldviews to be born, bloom and then disappear. In any case, this issue must continue to be monitored.

* Red (team) Analysis was contacted by the video production team of onlineMBA, who suggested, rightly, that I could be interested in this video. Quotes are taken from the email exchanges with them.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No119, 26 September 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security – Batman’s Gotham City with an international twist? The world is being profoundly reshaped: China’s global land grab, the battle for the Arctic and the importance of extreme environments for resources, a fast changing unsettled Middle-East, the importance of Central Asia, the return of a pre-World War I type of capitalist world, and a worrying question regarding Europe, exemplified by Greece. What if, rather than demonstrations leading to revolutions, we were facing a slow collapse of the state? Against this backdrop, the rosy utopian images of the future still produced by some (see last article at the bottom of the front page) appear to be very out-dated, the future as it was seen in the 1970s and 1980s, much less adapted to current dynamics than Batman’s Gotham City to which an international twist would need to be added. Why such differing visions, why such discrepancies? The answer lies partly in those models we use to understand the world and the article “hot models, hard questions” is definitely a must read.

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Democracy: the Key to Avoiding Future Wars? (3)

In this post we shall finish investigating the second level of analysis of the Kantian framework, i.e. how states in their relationships with one another and also with their citizens should behave in their pursuit of democracy and if this leads to war or not, as could happen in the case of Syria, and finally look at the third level, humankind.

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No118, 19 September 2013

If the situation in the Middle East definitely requires to be paid attention to, the East and the Far East deserve no less, as Japan seeks to change its constitution, India continues to try asserting and expanding its role, and Central Asia is increasingly entrenched as a crucial geopolitical node. Meanwhile, news and studies regarding the adverse impact of climate change are at odds with some trends in energy security and with the tale according to which “rich countries” will be less hurt, while monetary policies, notably quantitative easing, remain controversial.

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Democracy: the Key to Avoiding Future Wars? (2)

In the Kantian framework, different kinds of agents pursue democracy at three levels: the individuals within a nation, the states in their relationships with one another and also with their citizens, and humankind. In this article, we shall look at how individuals within a nation should behave if they want to truly abide by democratic principles.

Should they rebel and when? Should they support war, and which type of war if any?

This article is the second part of a series reflecting upon Democracy, especially its link to war, in the framework of events, notably regarding Syria, Egypt and the “Arab Awakening” but also the 2010s European and American opposition movements. The first article can be read here, and the next and final one here.

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No117, 12 September 2013

While a violent battle to win the minds through information, misinformation, manipulation, and deception is at work around Syria, the international order is changing out of the interactions between players. Will the post-1945 order prove resilient enough or are we heading towards a system that will look more like a 19th century Europe, or shall we see emerging something more complex including elements of “Middle-Age geopolitics and geostrategy”? The dire state of public finances across many countries, poverty and inequality, which have not disappeared far from it, the widespread distrust in governments existing in many Western countries, on the one hand, the evolution of the war in Syria, on the ground, on the other, are elements that should not be forgotten but, on the contrary, integrated to take any informed decision in the present and to attempt any judgement on the future.

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horizon scanning for national security, signal, anticipatory intelligence, political risk

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