Pattern – Towards Polarization in the Western World?

The pattern that has been emerging over at least the beginning of the second decade of the twenty-first century is a rising polarization within Western society – or societies. In this article, we identified and analysed the trend through the related signal – the 14 November 2012 strikes. We evaluated the evolution toward polarization as likely. We then assessed that we shall likely see more demonstrations and protests in the near future, which will probably expand in terms of participation, geographical scope and content of demands. Dismissal – easily interpreted as despise – absence of satisfying answer and feeling of unfairness will most likely enhance tension, opening the door to violence under various forms.

Subsequent  and current dynamics and events have proven our estimate was correct. We do not see an end to this trend in the near future (Oct 2017).

Analysis

As a consequence of the responses given by governments to the financial institutions and sovereign debt crisis, austerity policies, protests have spread throughout the Western world since March 2011. On 14 November 2012 a Europe-wide strike was organised and saw millions of demonstrators taking to the streets with variations according to countries. The demonstration shows a rising coordination across countries and mobilization of citizens. It is however still mainly peaceful despite sporadic violence.

#14N: millions join largest European strike ever, Jerome Roos, Reflections on a Revolution ROAR: Street battles break out and large parts of Europe are paralyzed as millions of workers walk off their jobs in the biggest coordinated EU…

The general demonstration occurred as the Euro zone was not yet considered as being in recession. However, as now recession is official and expected to last, then the causes for the mobilization remain, letting us expect more protests to come.

Euro zone seen sinking into recession as Germany struggles, Robin Emmot,  BRUSSELS, Nov 15 (Reuters): French economy seen stagnating; Germany to grow just 0.2 pct; The euro zone likely slipped in…

If peaceful protests are, however, considered as useless, notably by the conservative and liberal financial establishment, then it is most likely that demands will not be heard, and worse, that peaceful demonstrations will be dismissed. It may be seen as the real response to the demonstration, actually a hardened position. As recession may also increase the fear of diminishing profits, then a softening posture is unlikely. Furthermore, one may also imagine that a continuing recession added to failed efforts by demonstrators to bring about change would be an opportunity to actually increase profits – and power – on the short and medium term by breaking any opposition, thus by changing the second half of the 20th century related balance of power. This would also imply a tendency towards a harsher position.

Big Europe Strikes Have Little Effect, Wall Street Journal: General strikes and sporadic violence against government austerity programs racked Spain, Portugal and Greece, but they appeared unlikely…

Featured image: Madrid Demonstration on 14 November 2012 from #14N: millions join largest European strike ever by Jerome Roos.

#Anonymous and #OpVendetta on #5Nov 2012

As described previously, Anonymous undertook a political mobilization to protest on 5th November 2012, notably against current austerity policies and destruction of public service. Here is what happened yesterday evening, as a result, in a few pictures, tweets and charts.

Re-enacting V for Vendetta final scene in London

In London, the protest started on Trafalgar Square and walked until Parliament Square, as planned.

 

 

Here is a sample of a video of the London march as they are slowly released on Youtube:

Estimates of participation vary from hundreds to thousands.

According to RT’s article “‘Remember, Remember’: Anonymous marks November 5 with hacks, protests” as well as to a participant around two hundreds people gathered at Trafalgar Square:

 

However, some underline this figure as an underestimation, using the picture of the march to Parliament above.

Occupy, for itself, gives the following figures:

 

By comparison, the protest organised in Washington DC, for example, was much less successful, according to recorded livestream (by USTREAM), which, considering the specific day chosen – typically linked to English history – and different circumstances in the two countries, may not be surprising.

#OpVendetta and Analytics

Meanwhile, what happened on social networks, or more specifically on twitter?

The number of tweets, using Kred and the related analytics by PeopleBrowsr (the analytics are, by the way, extremely useful, easy to use and beautifully displayed) skyrocketed. Using as simple query #OpVendetta, you have the results below, counting 27660 Tweets for November 2012 and 21033 Retweets, most of them on 5 November 2012, with a rather positive sentiment. The location of the tweets is also interesting, with a strong participation in the UK and the US (see also the US share according to States), in Commonwealth countries and in Europe.

Was it a success and what to expect next?

I would assess that the operation was successful as it succeeded in moving from hacktivism mainly to a political protest in the real world, when it is so difficult to mobilise people. It also got coverage outside the cyber security world, notably on RT, according to the latter editorial line.

Is it enough to obtain the changes that were demanded, certainly not. However, history teaches us that political mobilization takes time and that obtaining political change is even harder. Thus, considering the overall grim outlook, my assessment is that the movement must be followed and is most likely to grow and to play an increasingly important part on the political scene.

‘We will NOT blow up Parliament’: Anonymous mobilizes for Bonfire Day

On 5th November 2012, Anonymous plans to re-enact the final scene of the film V for Vendetta in London. The protest could also spread to other European capitals and to North America (Steve Huff on Betabeat, 02/10/2012). Two operations, the action mode of Anonymous, #OpVendetta and #OpJubilee, “partner” to mobilize and organise this protest action.

Those operations, the mobilization efforts made, as well as the messages, show an interesting evolution of Anonymous in terms of political dynamics. Anonymous has registered important success over the past year such as participation in the winning action against SOPA, or its fight against paedophilia on the web (Paganini, Security Affairs, 11/07/2012). It has continued hacktivism, while supporting Occupy and other protests movements in Europe. Yet, the amorphous nature of Anonymous as an idea, its classical means of action on the web, could let observers wonder if all this is sufficient to make of them a political force in the real world, one that has the power to bring about change, thus one that has might (etymology: to be able).

Now, to mobilize for a political real world protest, Anonymous uses all the means at its disposal and experience acquired on the Web, as well as in the real world, for example when it spurred protests against Scientology with OpChanology, in a way that seems to be powerful politically.

First, the content of the demand, the why mobilization is needed and change must be achieved is clear. Reasons complement each other for the two operations, with slight differences.

#OpVendetta starts first its video by explaining what Anonymous is, showing, compared with usual Anonymous videos, an effort at explaining what is the movement to a larger public. There, they notably struggle against a negative image that could have developed linked to the fact they are usually labelled as hackers and threats.

Its protest intends to show displeasure at the situation in the UK and the policy of the government, to achieve the end of the denounced situation: “Join 1000’s of like-minded freedom fighters under the banner of Anonymous UK and the Novemberist Resistance Movement as we show our weak and corrupt government that we are not pleased. Our Army, Police, Doctors / Nurses, Teachers and Workers have been let down; sold out to the bankers. You have to work longer hours, for many more years and your pensions have been squandered! Now rise up like Lions from your slumber and join with us. This day will go down in history across the world as V-day.” (Youtube text)

In the case of #OpJubilee, the aim is:

“Cancel All Debt
Stop War
Redistribute the Land
Eliminate Poverty.” (#OpJubilee website)

Both, thus, build upon the financial and economic crisis, and especially on the policies of austerity, including the strong reduction of public spending and thus services to reduce public debt. They are more likely to be heard because the austerity and downsizing of the state touch people in their everyday lives (Harper, 2001). Those are very concrete real issues for most citizens, for the 99% to use the label created by Occupy. #OpJubilee goes a bit further, as it suggests clear solutions, which can be easily adopted and fought for, while #OpVendetta “only” wants to force the government to change its policies, the how being left to the elected MPs.

Second, #OpJubilee has been using hacking, besides defacing of websites, forums and portals, to advertise the forthcoming protest, send invitations and recruit supporters, notably among the UK Metropolitan police forces, as reported by Mohit Kumar, The Hacker News, 24/10/2012 & 26/10/2012. In so doing, they try to enlist support or at least a neutral attitude from part of the monopoly of violence of the state.

“A message to the police and armed forces”.

Message body: “Hello members of our UK police and armed forces” … “stand with us, not against us. Under your uniform you are one of us and we are you. United we stand and can make this world a better place for all of us. We are not against you, only against the evil system that you defend, and we appeal to your consciences to stop protecting the traitors and banksters, and protect us from them instead… Brothers in arms, join us and end wars and poverty. United we stand.” (Kumar, 24/10/2012)

Finally, the form of the protest itself, reconstituting the final scene of the cult film V for Vendetta, is both ambitious and grandiose. It is thus likely to inspire people in a world that is most of the time bleak, offering neither hope nor ideals. It revives the inspirational and charismatic part of political leadership, re-imagined for the 21st century.

Will the operations be successful? It is difficult to estimate, all the more so with a meme such as Anonymous. The traffic figures found on the related Facebook pages (FB OpVendetta 4696 indicating intention to go), Youtube (4898 views for #OpVendetta and 11304 for #OpJubilee), or in terms of Twitter followers (153 for @OpJubilee and 480 for @opVendetta2012, accounts created specifically for the event) would tend to indicate a relatively small participation. However, most Anonymous related accounts seem to be supporting the event, especially through #OpVendetta, and the overall trends on twitter are rising, with a drop related to the focus on Sandy, as shown on the graphic below realised thanks to Viral Analytics from PeopleBrowsr. As there are still, to date, six days to go, in those volatile times, everything is possible.

Whatever happens on the 5th of November, Anonymous will have learned from the mobilization and moved towards integrating further virtual and real life for political action.

—-

T. N. Harper, The End of Empire and the Making of Malaya, Cambridge University Press, Apr 9, 2001.

Russia Today (RT): a New Media for a Polarizing World?

Triggered by the financial and economic crisis, protests movements have spread, notably in Europe and in the U.S., be they famously named and democratic (Los Indignados/Real Democracy Now, Occupy, etc.) or not. We call them here the “new opposition nexus.” Despite much dismissal and their inner difficulties (intrinsic to new movements), they are now worrying enough, at least in Europe, to prompt the Swiss military to conduct exercises on the theme of “violent instability in Europe,” called Stabilo Due (6 to 21 September 2012).

If you follow those movements, then an interesting trend, source-wise, has been emerging over the past months. People are increasingly referring to and using RT for information.

RT is the acronym for Russia Today, a state-sponsored yet editorially independent Russian Television Network created in 2005. Since then, it has elicited its share of criticism for biases, promoting conspiracy theory like viewpoints, and efforts to spread pro-Russian views, as described, among others, on Wikipedia, or as echoed by Zwick, “Pravda Lite: Why are liberals lending credibility to a zany Russian TV station?” in The New Republic, trying to obtain an objective judgement (2012).

Yet, this does not deter the audience, as shown by the various social networks’ subscriptions measures, which can be taken as proxy indication for influence on the World-Wide-Web, where the new opposition nexus thrives and organises itself.

RT arrives well before VOA, or the Chinese Xinhua (and CNC World) and CCTV in terms of Twitter followers, yet is still dwarfed by mainstream CNN and BBC World, and much less followed than Al Jazeera English and Bloomberg News. The results are inverted on YouTube, where RT obtains its most amazing results. This October 2012 measure confirms the trend observed by the Pew Survey conducted from January 1, 2011, through March 30, 2012 (“YouTube and News,” July 2012) and pointed out by Jennifer Martinez on the Hill Technological Blog. We are witnessing 12,8% increase in 10 months (the Pew Survey counted more than 280.000 subscribers for RT, compared with today 315.940 subscribers).

Initially, as the RT archives show when consulted between Mars and June 2011 both for RT.com and for Actualidad RT (RT Spanish channel), the network did not follow more the rise of a new opposition movement in Europe than other media. This birth, in Europe and not in the U.S. with Occupy, continues being ignored by otherwise very interesting timelines of events such as the Guardian “Eurozone crisis: three years of pain.”
However, when the movement spread, this time, to the U.S. with Occupy, and notably when clashes with the NYPD made it famous, RT started an in-depth coverage that won it a nomination for the 2012 International Emmy Awards.

More importantly from the point of view of the new opposition nexus, since then, RT is not only part of those media that follow closely the various protests, but one of the few that tend to focus on protests first, sometimes indeed looking for more extreme events (for example, compare RT video below on the 20 October London demonstration with Al Jazeera one), over the mainstream business, economics and one-sided political elite approach. Despite in-depth reporting done by some, such as The Telegraph “Debt crisis: as it happened” or The Guardian Eurozone Crisis Live, RT is sometimes the only one (or the first one) to report on some pieces of information: for example, the participation of Greek reservists of the Special Forces in the 9 October 2012 anti-Merkel demonstration. Without blowing incidents out of proportion, those must also be considered, because, when accumulated, they are an indication of rising tension, here in Greece. In this specific case, involvement of reservists might be a weak signal indicating that the very means that allow the state to preserve its monopoly over violence could potentially be starting to fracture. More generally, if incidents are, in effect, taken out of context and rehashed by political actors, then the perception they create becomes escalating in itself.

Building upon the unorthodox financial views of the Kaiser report series, started in November 2009, this makes RT a media of choice for proponents of the protests, for people looking for and interested in non mainstream, thus alternative world-views, as well as for students of those movements.

An increasing influence of RT is also indicating the rising relative importance of interest in those alternative views. As more people experiment in their everyday life the violent impact of an unrelenting crisis, become aware of a multiplication of problems, and yet are offered by mainstream channels only old recipe, explanations and reassurances, they look for meaning and answers elsewhere.

As mainstream media continue having a strong influence, then we could be witnessing the start of a rising polarisation, notably within Western society, with RT playing a crucial role in terms of information, choice thereof, and ideas. Should this pattern be confirmed, then, ironically, it would not be without recalling, everything being equal, the role some Western radios (RFE, RFL, VOA, and BBC World) played for the Soviet dissidence during the Cold War.

Featured image: Russia Today studios building, Moscow, 2013, By Artem Svetlov from Moscow, Russia (Russia Today studios building, Moscow) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons.

The Chronicles of Everstate: a Practical Example of Foresight Analysis

The Chronicles of Everstate: a practical example of foresight analysis

As example of a detailed scenario and how to create one, besides usual posts, Red (team) Analysis will publish a new part of the Chronicles of Everstate, a fictional state created to imagine and tell the story of potential futures for the governance of our – very real – states or countries. When first published, the new post will be displayed on the home page, then will be accessible through the menu in “The Chronicles of Everstate,” as shown on the navigating map. The foresight methodology applied is explained in the section “Analyse.” The software Gephi was used to create the dynamic graph and then throughout the whole foresight analysis.

Tech news: problems with subscriptions’ emails – Working on it

Tech news: problems with subscriptions’ emails – Working on it

Due to new anti-spam policies by our host, it has been impossible to send any email to our subscribers. I am working on the problem, and in the meantime I present everyone all my apologies. I hope we shall be able to solve the problem quickly and resume normal email activity sent to subscribers for new post.

However, in the meantime, I shall add to the usual way to subscribe another possibility, to subscribe through WordPress (option2), as this type of subscription is not affected by the host policies.

The way to subscribe is the same, just enter your email address and press subscribe.

As soon as the problem will have been solved I shall post an updated status, and send an email to all subscribers.

Thanks for your understanding!

Dr Helene Lavoix

Can the Past Predict the Future? – Public Panel Event – Sept 13 2012 – Decorah, Iowa, U.S.

If ever you happen to be close to Decorah, Iowa, on September 13, 2012, join us for the panel event for a lively discussion (RT and share please).

2213 – 2218 EVT – Learning from Water Privatization? (Panglossy)

This post, as many others in the Chronicles of Everstate, can be read both as part of the scenarios on the future of the nation-state, as explained below, or as part of the section on Global Water Security. This shows how all issues are intertwined, and that the multiple existing feedbacks should not be ignored. Previously: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something when new elections start, which begins the second scenario, Panglossy. The new Everstatan government, dependent upon past thinking, decides that a return to economic efficiency …

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2213 – 2218 EVT – Unforeseen Outrage: Privatising the Commons (Panglossy)

Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something when new elections start, which begins the second scenario, Panglossy. The new Everstatan government, dependent upon past thinking, decides that a return to economic efficiency through growth is the key to the crisis. The first years, however, fail to bring back growth; the power of the lenders’ nexus and induced appropriation of public power continue unabated as the regulation of the international financial system does not progress. The initial efforts to fund growth through infrastructure investments show minimal …

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2213 – 2218 EVT – Novstate-Air: Fighting Air Pollution for Profit (Panglossy)

Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something when new elections start, which begins the second scenario, Panglossy. The new Everstatan government, dependent upon past thinking, decides that a return to economic efficiency through growth is the key to the crisis. Its first measure, to raise the minimum wage, fails to boost growth through consumption. As the new international meeting group for the resilience of the financial system IRESFIS does not show any progress, the ISSIGE, the international fund to promote green growth through infrastructure investment …

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