This article focuses mainly on the petrodollar system, which is at the heart of the U.S. dollar supremacy, and on the challenges it meets. Meanwhile, these trials start outlining potential futures for the international currency system.
Category Archives: Strategic Foresight and Early Warning Issues
Signals: China enters the Fray in the Middle East; Israel Unprecedented Interview; Saudi Arabia…
A new state of play is emerging in the Middle East, which redraws the regional web of influence, following the military victory over the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the concurrent and related negotiations for the end of the war in Syria. At the global level, the current jockeying taking place in the Middle East and its result will also have consequences as it impacts perceptions of global players, as well as influence and thus capability. On 16 November, three major diplomatic events centred around Saudi Arabia and Iran’s influence and involving China and Israel took place which impacted this state of play.
Signals: China World Domination in Supercomputers and Towards Lead in Artificial Intelligence
As we start our new section on Artificial Intelligence (AI), politics and geopolitics for the future, signals regarding the revolution at work pile up. China certainly appears to be leading the way in that matter, and we present here first impacts on political and geopolitical issues, as well as emerging uncertainties.
Signal: Libya’s Largest Tribe Poses Challenge for a Peaceful Solution
Impact on Issues ➙ ➀ / ➄ Hindrance to effective peace talks / Continued war in Libya Recent statements by the elders of the Warfalla tribe highlight an underlying challenge to Libyan peace talks—tribalism. Under the umbrellas of the rival Libyan governments lie a host of tribes that are simultaneously competing for influence and power. The …
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The Chinese Artificial Intelligence Revolution
The artificial intelligence (AI) world summit took place in Singapore on 3 and 4 October 2017 (The AI summit Singapore). If we follow this global trend of heavy emphasis on AI, we can note the convergence between artificial intelligence and the emergence of “smart cities” in Asia, especially in China (Imran Khan, “Asia is leading …
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Signals: Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel…
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Unity of Arab States, willingness and capability to support Saudi Arabia, willingness and capability to counter growing Iranian influence, (critical uncertainties) ➚ (➃ conflict in Yemen) Saudi perception of Iranian expansion and resulting threat ➙ ? Lebanon destabilisation ➚ ? Hezbollah influence in Lebanon ➚➚ Iran actualization of the Shia crescent to the Mediterranean …
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Signal: Al Qaeda / Islamic State New Front In Western Egypt?
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚ ➃ Reinforced jihadist front in Western Egypt ➚ ➃ Challenges to Egypt as it is squeezed between the Sinai and Western fronts ➚ ➄ Survival of the Islamic State ➚ ➄ Islamic State resurgence in the MENA region, notably Libya ➚ ➄ Strengthening of al-Qaeda in the MENA region ➚ ➄ Reinforced linkages with other jihadist groups and …
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Signal: Rival Libyan Governments Remain at Odds Over Haftar
Impact on Issues ➙ ➀ / ➄ Stalled peace dialogue / Continued war in Libya On Monday, the head of the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) High Council of State—Abdulrahman Swehli—reiterated the continued inability of the GNA and the Council of Representatives (COR) to agree on General Haftar’s role in a united government. For previous and …
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The Paradox of U.S. Decline … and the Tensions with North Korea
This article stresses the paradoxical character of a U.S. decline, and addresses the impossibility for the U.S. to accept its demise as superpower. It applies this framework to the case of the 2017 tensions with North Korea, and deduces a possible future path for the U.S. course of action, as well as possible levers regarding …
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Signal: Still no Agreement – Iraqis Forces and Peshmergas
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚ ? ➃ Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty)➘ ? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty) ➚ ➃ /➄ Iraq strength and international support ➘ ➂ Legitimacy of Iraqi Kurdish political authorities and parties➘ Prospects for Iraqi Kurds’ independence and even autonomy ➙ ➃ Iran’s influence in Iraq and in the region ➘ ➃ U.S. influence in the region➘ Middle East American order (Other issues stable as regard to this signal only – a full assessment would need to consider events in Lebanon and Yemen) On 5 November 2017, the ongoing negotiations between the Iraqi forces …
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