Starting in mid-September 2022, the Western media and political world has been abuzz with a Russian threat of nuclear Armageddon. Against such evil, the West, supporting Ukraine, may only show outrage, unveil the real malevolent nature of Russia and increase pressure to try to deter Russia, so runs the narrative. On 27 October 2022, reputable …
Continue reading “Can You Unbias Analysis? The Russian Nuclear Threat”
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) From 1 September to 16 September 22, Vladimir Putin, President of the Federation of Russia, presided the Russian military exercises Vostok 2022. Besides the Russian military, the exercise gathered troops from 14 countries, including India and China (Arang Shidore, “Vostok military exercises indicate that Russia is far from isolated”, Responsible Statecraft, …
Continue reading “An Excluded Russia? Not for Asia – Anthropocene Wars (6)”
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The September 2022 Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russia is hailed as very successful. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the “true heroes” who allowed for a “very rapid liberation” of 8000 sq km by 14 September 22 “in the east, notably in the Kharkiv Oblast, and the south, notably in the Kherson oblast”, …
Continue reading “An Alternative Red Scenario for the war between Ukraine and Russia”
The War in Ukraine and the Great Amplification Since the start of the Russian offensive on 24 February 2022, the raging war has triggered an amplification of the tension on global food and energy prices. The price trends for oil, gas, coal and agricultural products were already on the rise because of the Western “post” …
Continue reading “Food Security: China-Russia and Ukraine – Anthropocene Wars (4)”
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Russia’s attack on Ukraine on 24 February 2022 is profoundly changing the international order. The shock is notably hard for countries such as the members of the European Union, who thought they would be at peace for ever. Suddenly, these countries, their economic actors and their citizens rediscover war and the …
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Within the context of the heightened tensions between Russia and the U.S., Russia, on 1st February 2022, through its foreign minister Sergei Lavrov invokes an article of a 1999 agreement (Reuters, 1 February 2022). What is is this agreement and which article does Lavrov use? The 1999 agreement is actually the …
Continue reading “Russia vs the U.S. – The OSCE Istanbul Document”
Massive geopolitical changes are occurring in the Arctic, because of the rapid warming of this region due to climate change. These geopolitical shifts are particularly important in the Russian Arctic Exclusive Economic Zone, which spans from the Bering Strait to Norway, along the Siberian coast. This is where Russia develops the North East passage known …
Continue reading “The Russian Arctic, China’s (Digital) Development and Northern Europe”
This article focuses on the Russian part of the mammoth space cooperation developed between Russia and China and potential geopolitical impacts. This cooperation is further reinforced by the agreement signed the 1 November 2017 that involves six space-related areas, such as lunar and deep space, joint spacecraft development, space electronics, Earth remote sensing data and space debris monitoring (“China, Russia agree cooperation on lunar and deep space exploration, other sectors”, Global Times, Nov 02, 2017). The Chinese part was addressed in the first article of the series. This Sino-Russian cooperation is a de facto synergy about a new definition of industrial and strategic power. Indeed, space industry evolutions as well as the convergence of Chinese and Russian artificial intelligence strategies added to robotic development …
Continue reading “The Chinese-Russian Robot and Space Strategic Cooperation (2) – Russia”
On 1 November 2017, Russian Premier Dmitry Medvedev and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang signed a mammoth deal in space cooperation. That agreement involves six space-related areas, such as lunar and deep space, joint spacecraft development, space electronics, Earth remote sensing data and space debris monitoring (“China, Russia agree cooperation on lunar and deep space exploration, other …
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Impacts and ConsequencesIf Russia succeeds in gathering major actors in a congress in Sochi, which we estimate as likely (55% to 70%)Increased likelihood to see, at the end of the process, a constructive peace settling in Syria Increased likelihood to see the birth of a Federal Syria Increased likelihood to see the survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria Increased likelihood to see a serious lowering of tensions in the Middle East and even some kind of stabilisation Increased Russian influence(Nota: The symbolic board has been moved to the end of the analysis and before the sources/signals)Facts and analysisAs stated by Russian President Putin, the overarching goal is now, for Syria, “the political settlement process, with the finalization of the …
Continue reading “Signals: A Russian-backed Congress in Sochi for Future Peace in Syria?”
