Farmers’ protests have spread throughout Europe (notably France, Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania…) since at least mid-2023 with escalation at the start of 2024, as well as in India although for different reasons. In this light, we republish two articles that address the issue of protests and how they should or could be answered. …
Continue reading “Understanding a Protest Movement and its Crescendo”
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli – design with DALL-E 2) Given the speed and political density of the historic sequence opened by the war in Gaza, the second article in this new RTAS series only covers the period from 27 October to 20 November 2023. In the first part of this series, we saw how the …
Continue reading “From the War in Gaza to the Great U.S.-China War (2)?”
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Given the speed and political density of the historic sequence opened by the Gaza war, the first article in this new RTAS series covers only the period from 7 to 27 October 2023. Introduction: A new war in a new Middle East On 27 October 2023, Israel’s military launched …
Continue reading “The war in Gaza and China’s pivot to the Middle East”
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) On 7 December 2022, China’s president Xi Jinping received a royal welcome at his arrival in Saudi Arabia for a three days state visit. State visits between China and Saudi Arabia heads of state have taken place since 2016. In 2022, President Xi received a royal and considerably warmer welcome than …
Purchase access to 7 in-depths analyses, 3 actors’ mappings (downloadable) and 17 signals analyses on the tensions, crises and conflicts related to the Kurds, notably in Syria, for the years 2013-2018 (full access for three months). This represents approximately 150 pages (e-book) of in-depth analysis and research.
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(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli on a photo by Francesco Ungaro) The war(*) in Ukraine is hastening changes in international politics in many different ways. The possibility to see the conflict morphing into World War III acts as a convincing spur for continuing efforts at understanding and adapting. Concerned and informed actors are thus trying to …
Continue reading “Information Warfare and the War in Ukraine”
A nuclear theatre of operations (Art Direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Image: Recognize Productions via Pexels). On 24 February 2022, at the very start of Russian offensive against Ukraine, after a two days battle, the Russian forces took over the Chernobyl power plant, where the historic nuclear accident occurred in 1986 (Mary Kekatos, “Seizure of Chernobyl plant …
Continue reading “Nuclear Battlefields in Ukraine – Anthropocene Wars (2)”
(Art direction Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli using a photograph created by Pete Linforth) Over the last decades, strategic surprises have accumulated and accelerated rather than receded. They continue to do so. Most actors, from governments and international organisations to businesses through citizens seem to be constantly and increasingly surprised by events they fail to anticipate, and thus for which …
Continue reading “Multiplicating Crises: Strategic Surprises or Strategic Shocks?”
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Photo: Gerd Altmann) This brief article is an updated warning about the threat created by the Omicron variant. It is assessed with 15, 22 and 23 December 2021 information. It concerns a series of indications related to the risks of hospitalisation, to vaccination and to incubation period for the Omicron variant. …
Continue reading “Omicron Variant – “the Good, the Bad and the ‘Intriguing’” – Warning”
Strategic foresight and early warning are grounded in the idea of preventing surprise and more specifically strategic surprise. However, if we move away from the general idea of “strategic surprise” and try to be specific, i.e. if we try to apply the concept to a specific threat or issue we try to anticipate, then the …
Continue reading “Assessing the “Strategic” in Strategic Surprise”
