This article focuses mainly on the petrodollar system, which is at the heart of the U.S. dollar supremacy, and on the challenges it meets. Meanwhile, these trials start outlining potential futures for the international currency system.
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Signals: China enters the Fray in the Middle East; Israel Unprecedented Interview; Saudi Arabia…
A new state of play is emerging in the Middle East, which redraws the regional web of influence, following the military victory over the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the concurrent and related negotiations for the end of the war in Syria. At the global level, the current jockeying taking place in the Middle East and its result will also have consequences as it impacts perceptions of global players, as well as influence and thus capability. On 16 November, three major diplomatic events centred around Saudi Arabia and Iran’s influence and involving China and Israel took place which impacted this state of play.
The Chinese Artificial Intelligence Revolution
The artificial intelligence (AI) world summit took place in Singapore on 3 and 4 October 2017 (The AI summit Singapore). If we follow this global trend of heavy emphasis on AI, we can note the convergence between artificial intelligence and the emergence of “smart cities” in Asia, especially in China (Imran Khan, “Asia is leading …
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Signals: Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel…
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Unity of Arab States, willingness and capability to support Saudi Arabia, willingness and capability to counter growing Iranian influence, (critical uncertainties) ➚ (➃ conflict in Yemen) Saudi perception of Iranian expansion and resulting threat ➙ ? Lebanon destabilisation ➚ ? Hezbollah influence in Lebanon ➚➚ Iran actualization of the Shia crescent to the Mediterranean …
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The Paradox of U.S. Decline … and the Tensions with North Korea
This article stresses the paradoxical character of a U.S. decline, and addresses the impossibility for the U.S. to accept its demise as superpower. It applies this framework to the case of the 2017 tensions with North Korea, and deduces a possible future path for the U.S. course of action, as well as possible levers regarding …
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Event – Book Launch / Lancement “Géopolitique d’une Planète Déréglée”
Bilingual text EN-FR – Invitation to book launch, then presentation of Dr Jean-Michel Valantin, Géopolitique d’une Planète Déréglée. English invitation: Join us on 7 Novembre, 19h15 for Dr Jean-Michel Valantin Géopolitique d’une Planète Déréglée book launch, at Sciences Po, 13 rue de l’Université, Amphi Erignac, with a debate on “current geopolitics and the Anthropocene” (see more detail …
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Signals: Talks between Iraqi forces and Kurdish Peshmerga; President Barzani Steps Down; Iran…
Impact on Issues ➚ ? ➃ Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty)? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty) ➚ ➃ /➄ Iraq strength and international support ➘➘➘ ➂ Legitimacy of Iraqi Kurdish political authorities and parties➘➘➘ Prospects for Iraqi Kurds’ independence and even autonomy ➚➚ ➃ Iran’s influence in Iraq and in the region➘ ➙ Saudi Arabia’s influence➘ ? Saudi Arabia – Iran tensions ➚ ? ➃ Russia’s influence➘➘ ➃ U.S. influence ➘ ➄ Syrian Kurds prospects ➚ ➃ Russia’s influence trial in Syria➘➚? ➃ Middle East Tension As the internationally abandoned Iraqis Kurds appear to have, at least temporarily, not only lost their bid for …
Signal: Turkish President Erdogan Declares Afrin as Possible Next Military Target
Impact on Issues ? ➄ Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the further Turkish military actions regarding the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty)? ➄ Iran position considering a Turkish military action in Syria against the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty) ➚➚➚ ➃ Turkey acting militarily against the Federation of Northern Syria in Afrin ➚ ➚ ➃ Iran influence➚ ➄ Syrian future ➚ ➃ Israel perception of threat ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension ➚ ➃ Russia influence trial➚ ➃ U.S. influence trial Turkey President Erdogan old the parliamentary group of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) on Oct. 24 that:“Our operation in Idlib is nearly complete. Ahead of us is Afrin. These are threats to us and we will never make concessions to such threats.”For previous and other signals …
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Signal: Two Regions in Italy Vote Heavily for Autonomy
Impact on Issues ? Italy, Lombardy and Veneto: towards autonomy? ? The end of an Italian nation? ? The future of the Italian State? ? The Italian South reaction ? ➚➚ ➁ Deep changes for the nations and their modern-state, and “liberal democracies”, within the EU… and globally (high uncertainty) ? The EU structure (including staff) and governance must …
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China: Towards the Digital and Ecological Revolution?
“Airpocalypse” turns the air of the great Chinese cities into a kind of chronic and massive chemical attack. Meanwhile, ecological issues are gaining a new and strong political traction. In the meantime, China is also becoming a world leader of the digital transformation. In other words, two major dynamics run through China in the same …
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