Since the Islamic State declared a Khilafah on 29 June 2014, it carried out, worldwide, 6 attacks or series of attacks in 2014, which killed 2 and wounded 12 people, 23 in 2015, which killed 1020 and wounded more than 2171, 36 in 2016, which killed more than 1455 and wounded more than 3505 and so far 3 in 2017, which killed more than 109 and wounded more than 169 people, assuming all attacks are known and referenced as such (Wikipedia “List of terrorist incidents linked to ISIL“). As a whole, we thus faced 68 attacks, during which more than 2586 people lost their lives and more than 5857 were injured. Prospects for the near future look no less grim as reminded …
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Lessons from the Conflict in Ukraine – Geopolitics, Uncertainties and Business (4)
This article identifies lessons we can learn from the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on businesses, as presented in the first part, to continue enhancing our understanding of the way businesses and the corporate world could usefully anticipate or foresee geopolitical and political risks and uncertainties.
From the way to identify which crises and geopolitical uncertainties can be – sometimes unexpectedly – of concern to a company (Lesson 1) to the best timing for starting the anticipation process (Lesson 2), the need to think outside the ideological box (Lesson 3) and multi-dimensionally (Lesson 4) and to understand “national interest” and its evolution (Lesson 5), the impacts of the war in Ukraine bring us a wealth of understanding and points out many necessary if not crucial improvements that may be endeavoured. These will thus be added to the points previously identified in “Lessons from and for the Brexit – Geopolitics, Uncertainties, and Business (2)”, after a general framework was defined in “Businesses and Geopolitics: Caught up in the Whirlwinds?” (1).
Impacts of the Conflict in Ukraine – Geopolitics, Uncertainties and Business (3)
With this article and the next one, we use the instability and conflict in Ukraine and the related impacts on businesses to continue enhancing our understanding of the way businesses and the corporate world could usefully anticipate or foresee geopolitical and political risks and uncertainties.Towards a U.S. Nuclear Renaissance? AI at War (3) – Hyperwar in the Middle east AI at War (2) – Preparing for the US-China War? Niger: a New Severe Threat for the Future of France’s Nuclear Energy? Revisiting Uranium Supply Security (1) The Future of Uranium Demand – China’s Surge Uranium and the Renewal of Nuclear Energy We review two major impacts of the war in Ukraine. First we look at the “surprising” cost of sanctions related to Ukraine on the …
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Scenarios for the Future of Libya – Sc 3.2 A Nationalist Libya
This article focuses on the second of the scenarios depicting a total victory for one Libyan faction, where the nationalist coalition – loyal to a non-Islamist and nationalist government – is victorious and guides Libya towards a secular and nationalist state where Sharia is not a source of governance. In our previous scenario we detailed the scenario of an Islamist victory where the new government gradually, with different paths according to speed, implements Sharia law and puts Libya on the path towards an Islamic state. Note: Considering the future names of potential factions that would result from a new split between the unity government, we shall use the label nationalist for those that supported the nationalist-dominated Council of Representatives (COR) …
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Lessons from and for the Brexit – Geopolitics, Uncertainties, and Business (2)
On 24 June 2016 morning, the U.K. announced the results of the referendum on the Brexit: 51.9% of the population voted to leave the EU against 48.1% wanting to remain, while the turnout reached 72,2% (BBC Referendum Results). This vote triggered among the media, financial and European political elite a “shock”, consternation, and a host of predictions of impending doom, while markets plunged worldwide (BBC News, “Brexit: What the world’s papers say“, 24 June 2016). It also set off a series of events and dynamics still unfolding nowadays with far-ranging consequences, globally, for the future.We shall use this real life case to further enhance our understanding of the way businesses and the corporate world relate to and especially anticipate or rather …
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Businesses and Geopolitics (1): Caught up in the Whirlwinds?
What if, by May 2017, “non-liberal” movements and parties were in power in the U.S. with Donald Trump, France with Marine Le Pen and Austria with Norbert Hofer? The overall geopolitical configuration would most probably greatly change, in areas such as the tensions between “the West” and Russia, the upheavals between the U.S. and Eastern Asia, the European Union’s definition, policies and …
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Behind-the-Scenes
Summer-Autumn 2016
The summer and early autumn have been particularly interesting times for the Red (Team) Analysis Society. We notably participated in crucial “behind-the-scenes” meetings and activities, which shape how the field of risk management, strategic foresight and warning, crisis prevention or more broadly strategic anticipation evolves, from practice, processes, and methodologies, to major issues, specific risks and uncertainties. About global risks, threats and uncertainties, …
Fighting the Islamic State’s Terrorism at Home – Truly Defend and Strike Back
This is the second part of the series looking for a third way to – truly – fight against the Islamic State’s – and other salafi-jihadi’s – terrorist attacks at home, away from polarisation. Unfortunately, in the light of the spat of terrorist attacks in Bangladesh, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, in France again and again, in Germany and on 22 March 2017 in London, especially considering the way these attacks were carried out, this series of two articles becomes even more salient (e.g. “1–2 July 2016 Dhaka attack“, Wikipedia; “Istanbul airport attack: Isis behind deaths of at least 41, PM says“, The Guardian, 29 June 2016; “Nineteen people arrested over Saudi Arabia attacks“, Al Jazeera, 8 July 2016, “Nice attack: At least …
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The UAE Grand Strategy for the Future – from Earth to Space
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is devising a grand strategy to ensure its global security during the 21st century. In 2010, the UAE’s government published the “UAE Vision 2021”, establishing the will “to ensure a sustainable development”. In 2011, the UAE’s political authorities created a national marine environment research centre. In 2014, they created the …
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2016/17 Risk Analysis & Crisis Management – Syllabus Sciences Po – PSIA
Here is the full syllabus with its detailed bibliography for Academic Year 2016/2017, Fall Semester. For each week, right after the description of the week’s lecture follows the theme for the week’s class discussion, which will also be the basis for the week’s presentation. Students will then find the required readings for that week, which will inform the class discussion. The last section is about recommended but not required readings. Course requirements Class Presentation (45 percent): The class presentation will address, for the week chosen by the student, the topic outlined in bold as class discussion, as detailed and explained in the syllabus below, week after week. It will present, for the group(s) project part (second part of the course) the result of the …
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This content is only available to Sciences Po – PSIA Master Students.
