The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No123, 24 October 2013

Japan, an exemplary case for a complex world? The situation of Japan can be seen as a perfect case that exemplifies the complex dynamics into which we are taken. Absence of foresight and warning as well as refusal to consider the reality of environmental risk – and to act accordingly – plays a large part in the Fukushima continuing tragedy, which, added to the lasting Syrian war and related international quagmire, means a rising energy bill. Meanwhile, delocalization stops the country to see its exports increasing sufficiently. As a result, Japan knows its longest series of trade deficit since 1979, which may only degrade further its already dire financial situation, considering its public deficit. We thus have the interplay of many factors, some of them apparently far away or deemed impossible or unimportant, all converging. Could this type of configuration spread, making the situation of McDonald’s workers the most probable future for the worldwide middle class? And, if the middle class continues shrinking (check the videos), what will happen to liberal democracies, while the Westphalian state is questioned from without and within? One way forward could come from the University of Oklahoma’s researchers, as they developed a new video game aiming at mitigating biases. If awareness of and struggle against biases was to be generalized, and, among others, applied to the need to reinvest in policy-making – to say nothing of the need to have a real strategy – then the odds to see our future improving, at individual, country and world level, would be considerably strengthened. Shall we decide to use this opportunity?

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Red team Analysis, horizon scanning, weak signal, political risk, strategic warning, anticipatory intelligence

Facing the Fog of War in Syria: The Syrian Islamists Play the Regional “Game of Thrones”

This update covers the evolution in Syria from July to October 2013. It focuses first on dynamics of change involving the interplay between the Syrian Islamist factions on the ground and international players – especially the declaration of an “Islamic framework” and then the creation of the Islam Army, with impact on the overall situation, and provides an updated mapping for Syrian Islamist groups. It then looks at evolutions related to the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces.Syrian Sunni factions intending to install an Islamist state in Syria(For background and past state of play, see here)It is within those groups that we have been witnessing throughout September-October 2013 the most potent changes. As always, and as Lund stressed again recently, the …

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No122, 17 October 2013

One of the most important signals of the week was not only, unsurprisingly, the last episode in the never-ending politician American infighting over the debt ceiling, but also, the perceptible fatigue across a wide range of world actors, who were being taken hostage by representatives they had not elected over issues that did not concern them. Even Americans despised the bickering and its huge impact borne by others, if polls and surveys are to be believed. One of the major impact we may envision is that we may well be leaving the dollar dominated world we have known. The cost for the U.S. will be very high on all fronts. That will also mean major changes for the world, including in terms of instability, which may not be good news considering all other elements (from a changing energy security map to turmoil in the Middle East without forgetting new armament and technological changes), also feeding into a generalizing uncertainty. This episode and its global impact could also indicate that we have now, beyond doubt, entered a period of evolution and transition, where complexity is a reality (see for example how piracy may impact climate change research) and feedbacks are very strong and escalating, and will remain so until we – the actors – find how to stabilize our world system.

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Horizon scanning, weak signal, early warning, strategic warning, national security, red team analysis

Climate Change, a Geostrategic Issue? Yes!

“Winter is coming” This is the motto of the Starks, the eminent feudal family depicted in “Game of Thrones”, the fantasy novel series, by George R.R. Martin [1]. Its members are involved in numerous and interlocking power struggles between the different Houses of a kingdom, whose ruler is weak ( and meets a sad fate). This continent is dominated by a strange climate, divided in two seasons, a summer and a winter, each potentially lasting several years. Winters can be fearfully cold and snowy, induce mass starvation for a very long time, as well as terrible conflicts, and decide, by their harshness, like war, of the destiny of nations. When “Winter is coming”, the moment has come to get prepared for times dominated by cold, despair and …

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Welcome to a new Author on Climate Change Security

The Red (Team) Analysis Society welcomes Dr Jean Michel Valantin, who will focus on issues and problems related to climate change and national security. Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris) is specialised in strategic studies and defense sociology, and more particularly in environmental geostrategy. He is the author of Menaces climatiques sur l’ordre mondial (Climatic threat on the world order), Ecologie et gouvernance mondiale (Ecology and world governance), Guerre et Nature, l’Amérique prépare la guerre du climat (War and nature: America gets ready for climate war), and of Hollywood, the Pentagon and Washington: The Movies and National Security from World War II to the Present Day.

With his first article, “Climate change, a geostrategic issue? Yes!”, he explains why climate change should also be seen from a geostrategic perspective, and underlines, through concrete examples, that, actually, the evolution in strategic thinking has already started. He thus prepares us to explore:

“These forces [that] are reshaping the whole international relationships web, as well as the fabric of nations, societies and communities. They are causing new kinds of tensions, which are the engines of actual, and coming, conflicts, struggles, revolutions, and wars.”

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No121, 10 October 2013

This week among the major clusters of signals that emerge, we have those about Turkey, its geopolitics and growing Islamism, then the chronicles of an environmental catastrophe in the making, including resources depletion, with the rising importance of a “Gold Rush to Space” as one counterweight. In this framework, if we look at another – unsurprising – cluster, the U.S. government shutdown (and risk of default – but they would not dare, would they?), and turn to the very interesting “Un-Official Government Shutdown Clock”, we shall see that the NASA counts 97% of furloughed employees, the EPA 93% and the DOE 69%. Thus, to direct challenges to national security the shutdown represents, amply emphasized and documented, we may see another one being outlined, a challenge in terms of strategic choices and vision. The cluster on drones and “killer robot insects” is an indication of the changes taking place in warfare, while the more ancient but always efficient psychological operations continue unabated, as with Syria. Meanwhile, the agony of Greece and Greeks exemplifies a world that has changed, with its growing wealth and skyrocketing inequality and their so often forgotten, slowly emerging political consequences, at national and international level (including the progressive loss of legitimacy of international institutions, see the articles on the IMF  and Greece and the U.N. and Haiti).

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horizon scanning, weak signal, warning, global risk, political risk, national security

 

Facing the Fog of War in Syria: Updates

As underlined when we started the series on Syria, one of the analytical challenges we face, in terms of strategic foresight and warning, is the fog of war. The, at time, rapid evolution of the situation, fits badly with any static mean to deliver analysis. We need, of course, to monitor what is happening, but also to regularly integrate this surveillance in our strategic analysis and finally to make it known to concerned audience (readers, decision-makers, policy-makers). After having outlined the methodological difficulties and presented the solution chosen, we shall focus on the updates themselves.Methodology: challenges and imperfect solutionsFirst, in terms of periodicity and content of publication (delivery in SF&W jargon), a right balance must be found between publishing too …

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The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No120, 3 October 2013

Besides other issues, the agreement between the U.S. and Japan to modernize their security cooperation, implying among others a larger role for Japan, is most likely to have ripple effects, notably considering the tense situation with China and unhealed regional wounds stemming from World War II. Energy security then is very much to the fore, with renewed questions regarding the adverse environmental impact of fracking also having a strong potential for large and multiple impacts, without forgetting the impact of Fukushima’s nuclear tragedy.

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red team analysis, horizon scanning, warning, weak signal

Weak Signals of Cracks in the Neoliberal Paradigm?

government, business, neoliberalism, Red (team) Analysis, paradigm shift, political risk, weak signal“Businesses run the world, they are better managed, more efficient at all levels, promote innovation and discoveries, and deliver better services and products than any other organization, notably governments and states’ administrations.” This is a hardly caricatured representation of the worldview we have increasingly known since at least the middle of the 1980s, that bloomed and became entrenched in the 1990s and in the first decade of the 21st century. Yet, what if it were now showing signs of being questioned, besides protests movements? And which signals can we find that could indicate the possibility of cracks in the hegemony of this idea?

A first signal comes from what we could call an elite group, itself benefiting from the hegemony. The Henry Jackson Initiative For Inclusive Capitalism (HJI), launched on 14 May 2012, although focusing on capitalism as a system and aimed at the private sector, seeks to promote a better capitalism, because:

“we believe that a broad-based acceptance of basic ethical norms is necessary if any form of capitalism is to be widely accepted. Otherwise, the system itself will be discredited and ultimately destroyed, whether by internal failures, external pressures or both—or by some other unforeseen and undesirable force.” (HJI Task Force’s report, p.6)

It promotes the vision held by neoliberalism, according to which “capitalism has made the world healthier, richer and freer than previous generations could have imagined. People in capitalist societies live longer than their forebears, earn more and are better educated,” (report, p.4), but also take stocks of many of its shortcomings and adverse impacts. By doing so, it seeks to only bring “modifications” (p.6) to the current system, not to completely change it. Yet, its very efforts will contribute to achieve something different from what we knew. Furthermore, the HJI shows that it is now possible to question the dominant ideology without being marginalized. This signal, as the next one, would most probably not have emerged if the various protests movements that took place worldwide, from the “Arab Awakening” to Occupy, had not occurred, as indeed underlined p.26 of the report. Interestingly, the HJI also specifies that its focus is the private sector, thus acknowledging a difference between the mission of governments and states’ administrations on the one hand, and the role of businesses on the other, setting a clear line between both, in contradiction with the previous worldview:

We decidedly take no position as to exactly what level of taxation and regulation best balances the ability of government to do what it must without harming the desire of entrepreneurs and businesses to do what they can.” (my emphasis – report p.6)

The signal is all the more important that the HJI it is a child of the British and transatlantic think tank the Henry Jackson Society (see notably its history and its advisory council), and relayed by famous and recognized media, such as The Economist, as shows the interview of Lady Lynn Forrester de Rothschild, a crucial member of the HJI task force,  and among others, Chief Executive of E.L. Rothschild LLC as well as a Director at The Economist, on “Capitalism and society in 2013” (video, The Economist’s World in 2013, Gala dinner on December 6th 2012).

A second signal comes from the website OnlineMBA.com, which has as “larger mission to educate prospective MBA students, not only about their options for online programs, but also about current trends in business”.* As part of its education purpose, this website produces videos (Minute MBA), and one of its latest production is titled “3 reasons why government shouldn’t be run like a business” (see here for a transcript):

In the words of one member of the video production team:

“This is an independent research project. We are not connected and affiliated by any school, organization or government. Moreover, we are privately funded by contributors and researchers who have volunteered their time to create this resource and other resources within our site.”*

Besides being interesting and very well done, this video – and it can also be taken as a perfect example of the diversity of ways we can use to deliver products – is a direct signal that cracks in the neoliberal ideology exist and seem to spread. Interestingly, once more, it comes from one of those very groups – the private sector – that were meant to benefit most from the paradigm. Furthermore, it is promoted by the young generation and within the field of education, which is one of the institutions in society where norms are inculcated.

The existence of those signals does not mean that everything will change overnight, nor even that the still current worldview is meant to disappear. We could witness a possible polarization taking place in the Western World and elsewhere, as suggested previously, but with changes compared with what was noted in November 2012. Either the polarization will be kept in check and a more peaceful evolution will take place, as the signals here suggests, or the polarization will happen, but with a positioning of actors that could be seen as surprising from the point of view of the worldview questioned. The indications reported here could also disappear, not be followed by others, leaving the ideology more entrenched… for a while, as it is the historical destiny of worldviews to be born, bloom and then disappear. In any case, this issue must continue to be monitored.

* Red (team) Analysis was contacted by the video production team of onlineMBA, who suggested, rightly, that I could be interested in this video. Quotes are taken from the email exchanges with them.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No119, 26 September 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security – Batman’s Gotham City with an international twist? The world is being profoundly reshaped: China’s global land grab, the battle for the Arctic and the importance of extreme environments for resources, a fast changing unsettled Middle-East, the importance of Central Asia, the return of a pre-World War I type of capitalist world, and a worrying question regarding Europe, exemplified by Greece. What if, rather than demonstrations leading to revolutions, we were facing a slow collapse of the state? Against this backdrop, the rosy utopian images of the future still produced by some (see last article at the bottom of the front page) appear to be very out-dated, the future as it was seen in the 1970s and 1980s, much less adapted to current dynamics than Batman’s Gotham City to which an international twist would need to be added. Why such differing visions, why such discrepancies? The answer lies partly in those models we use to understand the world and the article “hot models, hard questions” is definitely a must read.

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horizon scanning, national security, Gotham city, Batman, models

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